Τα νέα του Cross Country - XC news

  Summary of the day slight drop in Baro, less strong inversions and smoother air humidity at 25% - high density air  More clouds than yesterday specially in the south Details Βαρομετρική 1009 drop 2mb Temperatures Μιν Τ 20 Less than yesterday Μαχ Τ32 same  ΔΤ12 good instability at all heights Dewpoint 2C south 50km 4C 100km 6C Increased humidity in the area, more in the south. Expect more clouds in the south  Clouds Forecast Cloudbase 2700-3000m therefore blue skies today at Voras, more clouds and lower cloudbase at Vermio and South West. double gloudbase at vermio, 2700 in the east and 3000 in the west, after Aliakmonas river 2700 everywhere cloud tops +400 up to 1200m above high mountains Cloud coverage 10% to 50% More clouds to the mountains and to the south Cloud Types Cu Inversion Levels 700n, 1700m, 2700m early Thermals Analysis Thermals at levels +4>1000m, +5>1500m Top of Lift 2800m at Kaimaktsalan early, 3000m at Vermio and south Zone Ideal 1500-3000m Winds at 15.00 Wind

  An unstable airmass is establidhed in the Balkan area, with a frontal zone developing in the North Weast of Krusevo at 150-200km. This will have a domino impact in the area very close to the Krusevo valley from the west. Winds have swiched to south east in a low level and south west above 2100m.  Instability will express its self early in the afternoon from the West and NW, bringing overdevelopment and showers west of Krusevo which will bring shadow in the area, and will increase the possibility the unstable weather to pass in the Bitola area. Krusevo valley is well protected from the North due to mountains but it is more vulnerable to south winds which will bring high humidity area in the hot valley and according to the Skew-T diagram if the surface temperature exceeds 37 then ...boom in the vally around 15.00 At 11.00 first Cu develop above high mountains.  at 12.00 further development above mountains at 13.00 we have spread out to the west and shadow with rain possibility above Oc

  Summary An organized cold fron line is passing from Romania to Bulgaria.  Very unstable conditions with Shower clouds and isolated thunderstorms are trapped in the area of Albania, with significant instability maximizing the possibility for TS clouds around 16.00h. The winds will drop comparing to the previous day  Overdevelopment is expected with early clouds in the valley at 13.00h and fast expansion horizontally and vertically after 14.00h There are 3 areas of higher isolated TS close to Krusevo, one is 30km in the North, Ochrid area in the west and Florina area in the south border with Greece. 16.00-17.00h is the most possible time for shadow and rain. The thermals of the day are expected less strong than yesterday, especially close to the ground as the very high predicted ground temperature of 39 minimizes themp contrast on the ground and induces long cycles for house thermals to evolve and long pauses. More details Barometer is dropping by 2mb making the air to feel lighter and

  Summary There is a frontal zone developing in the area, created to Albania borders and moving towards the east , delayed by the mountains and faster above flat ground which will affect the area around 16.00. West of Krusevo it will slowly move but at Kastoria area it will move faster. NorthEast winds slightly increases at all levels and turns to 12kph North above 3.000m 7000top clouds will start to create after 13.00 visual from the west valleys and creating shade which will be effective after 15.30 when the sun will start falling to the west horizon. Rain is expected very close to the west at 16.00h Initially some clouds will be seen at 13.00 to the west expandind rapidly vertically and horizontally after 14.00h both to the west and east. Cloud coverage up to 100% at 18.00 However there is a window of opportunity if the front passes more easily to the south from Greek flat areas and the west mountains will avoid impact in the area of Krusevo, especially due to the continental air wh

  Summary Epic Cu sky day with cloud bases of 4000m but with a risk for overdevelopment after 15.30h Early clouds to the west , south and south east which will overdevelop during the early afternoon. winds increase by 5 kph at all levels and turn from the east at low and high level Valley full of clouds at 15.00h with a coverage  20% in the center of the valley and much more in the west south and south east areas > 40km from Krusevo. No rain prediction but sky full of Cu everywhere with blue areas in the middle and the north-east areas of Krusevo valley. a lot of shadow due to overdevelopment is expected after 15.30 in the area from Krusevo to Bitola. More details Barometer: icreases by 1mb, slightly stronger inversions Temperatures min Temp=26 (higher 1 C) max Temp=39 (higher 1 C) Very hot on the ground with less contrast in temperature Humidity increases by 2%. Higher temperature and humidity indicate a potential for clouds everywhere across the valley with areas of overdevelopmen

  Summary The day seems better than Monday as the North winds slow down above 2000m Comparing to the previous day conditions will increase more gradually after 13.00 reaching a peak at 16.00, then will be smoother the first clouds will appear to the north west of Krusevo around 12.00 and gradually come closer above the take off at 13.00 and create a line of clouds across the mountain ridge. In the beginning thermals will not reach easily more than 2000m. Later in the day other clouds will appear south of Prilep at 14.00 and will gradually expand in the middle of the valley between Krusevo and Bitola at 15.00. Later they will move more to the south to bitola area, but this will combine with a high cloud at 5.700m in the west that will create shadow on the area after 17.00.   More Details Barometer: slightly drop by 1mb, expecting thinner thermal inversions  Humidity: drops 2%,  almost 10% meaning a high density air and a lot of kinetic energy to thermals and winds Dewpoint: similar to t

  Summary Less humidity and less clouds than Sunday, appearing after 13.00 from the west High winds increase and turns direction from NW to NE Some faint clouds expected in the valley after 15.00 6000m top clouds 40km in the west late in the afternoon Some light turbulence expected in the level of 2000m above which north winds increase and thermals accelerate Details of the Day Barometer is stable comparing to Sunday Min Temperature at 26 (increased by 1 degree) Max Temperature 38  Range of temperatures is 12C, meaning unstable conditions and thin inversion levels Dewpoint at 6,5 C in the valley  Humidity drops The combination of parameters shows increase air kinetic energy in the air mass supporting an increase of wind in the low level and potentially strong thermals close to the ground Cloud base expected 3500+ with many blue thermals in the east and south of the valley and most of the clouds above high ground in the west and in the north Some thin clouds expected in the middle of th

  Summary of the day Similar day to yesterday maybe with slightly less powered thermals Barometric Pressure drops 1mb and humidity drops 2%  Small increase of higher NW winds More dust in the low level <1000m will delay the day to start by half an hour. (13.30h) and less sun energy to the ground - long thermal cycles. Ideal Take off 13.30h Peak of the day 14.00-17.00h 3h duration of potential Task More Details Barometer The barometer will drop to 1003mb by 1 mb, tendency to break inversions but air less dense and possible increase of local winds Temperatures low T =26 C(higher than yesterday) High T = 37-38C (higher than yesterday by 1 degree) DT=12 C enough instability at higher altitude but less temperature contrast on the ground, meaning thermal cycles will last more. Dewpoint in the valley the DP=8,5 C similar to yesterday.  Humidity -2% Clouds More clouds in the west and less clouds in the east Cloudbase starts with 2900m later at 15.00 will exceed 3400m, after 17.00 will drop

  The best Day until now, if there is not Overdevelopment in the valley Less humidity, higher cloud bases, more clouds in the valley, stronger thermals lower and higher Low East winds (+2-3kph) High NW winds 15kph Above 2100m More details Barometric pressure drops by 3mb Humidity decreases by 2%. Similar strong conditions but higher cloudbase. Min Temperature 25 in the valley, max Temperature 37 both increased by 2 C, contrast the same at 12 C - means unstable conditions. Cloudbase 3200-3500 Tops of clouds at 4.500m Cloud types Cu, Cu Conj to the North West and North Cloud coverage from 10%-28% Inversion levels at 700m, 2200m (wind shift at this altitude) Winds Gust 25kph 0m East 12kph 600m East 14kph 1200m East 15kph 1800m East 13kph 2400m NE 12kph 3000m NW 15kph 3600m NW 10kph Day Potentials Day starts at 12.00 Ideal Take off at 13.00 Day declines first at 16.00h then at 1800h Duration of strong conditions 4h Peak of the day 13.00-17.00 Potential XC speed 32-37kph Potential XC >10

  Summary Barometer is stable, but humidity drops in the Valley of Krusevo. Tis means less clouds in the valley while in the west a similar sky full of clouds is expected.  The low winds remain North east in the valley and they will turn to east abobe Krusevo mountain and take off. The higher wind switches to North west above 2400m. The day starts and finishes in a similar way, with high clouds to the west creating shade in the area of Bitola after 16.30. At first the sky will be blue. After 11.00h the first clouds will appear to the west ridges and to the mountains in the NorthEast. Very few clouds are expected in the valley, at least less than yesterday.  At the end of the day, some high Cu with tops at 5500km altitude in the west and some overdevelopment in the North East, but also some Cu cloud will appear South of Prilep. As a conclusion, less humidity, less clouds and more dificult in the flatlands than the previous day. More Details Barometer 1007 mb min-T=23 C max-T=35 C DT=12

  Summary of the Day - Task 3 The Frontal zone of Albania and West of Greece is intensive. The phenomena will not affect as directly but indirectly with Shower clouds that will appear to the west and move south of our area.  In the beginning the day will be blue. After 11.00h we will see the first clouds in the west (base 2600m) and North mountains.  at 13.00 we have a development of many Cumulus around the valley closing around the blue circle of Krusevo valley. at 14.00 we have extensive Cu clouds with a lot of shade, connecting and mooving to the south east of the valley.  at 15.00 they will disappear, sun will increase and there will be a second cycle. at 16.00 there will be high clouds to the west (90% coverage) that will bring again shadow in the valley, breaking the thermal activity. Winds from the NE across all levels, maybe slightly ENE less that today but with higher gusts at 1500 >25kph. Details Barometer Increases by 1mb vs. yesterday increasing slightly the air kinetic

The day will start earlier than yesterday (12.00)  The sky will be blue in the valley of Krusevo but Cu clouds will start appearing early in the west, north and north east.  A fast evolution of cloud will bring shower clouds in the West and North, first to the area of Mavrovo and will come closer from the North west. Overdevelopment is expected to create shadow in the area from the west with a peak at 16.00 to be up to 50% cloud coverage. Barometer slightly increases by 1mb Temperatures Range around 11 degrees (23 to 34C max) This range is enough for creating thermals at higher altitude, however close to the ground there may not be strong lift. Dewpoint in the west at 12,5-13,5 C with lower cloud bases in this area. In the east valley DP=8,5 C Humidity 20%  Cloud base in the valley can reach >3500m. Later in the afternoon it will be lower by 200-300m especially after 15.30 that the overdevelopment will take place. Thermals <700m expected ¬2m/s < 1000m expected ¬3m/s <1600m

Summary  The day will start later than yesterday but will evolve faster with clouds. Some Cu with high tops above 5000m will appear from the west and North, later in the afternoon also in the east. The 5500m inversion will block the creation of Cb clouds, but we may have horizontal overdevelopment in the west, north and east that will create some shade in the valley.  Thermals will start 30min later than the previous day, but will be with less power around 3-4m/s between 1000 and 2700m at 16.00h at peak. The sky will gradually close from the north to the south, with nice Cu cloud streets flyable at the end to the south to bitola goal while potential showers will apear in the close west and north. The lower airmass and winds will be similar to the previous day (East<10kph) however higher winds will increase from the North West and above an inversion of 1800m. Potential Shadow to the take off from the west due to the overdevelopment at 16.00h Details Barometric pressure is dropping by

  Barometer Baro is dropping slightly vs yesterday, icreasing the opportunity for higher thermal top altitude than yesterday, but less air kinetic energy inside thermals Temperature Range minimum 23 C, Maximum 35 (higher than yesterday) DT=12 C a little more stable than yesterday, more obvious above valleys. Dewpoint   13,5 C at west of Krusevo12,5 at take off area, 11,5 in the east valley. Humidity Low humidity at 20%, similar air mass to Saturday Clouds Cloud base expected 2600m above mountain tops around, later increase up to 3000-3300m above different high mountain areas. We are in a blue hole but Cu cloud will spread to the horizon. Cloud tops estimated thin <400m, higher tops at North West and North East of Prilep Cloud coverage <20% max above high ground Inversion levels According to ICON6,5 a low hyperadiabatic level below 750m, a second level at 1700m later to disappear and a thirds level at 2500, which will increase after 16.00 below the Cu cloud visible areas. At the e

 Barometer trend A slight Barometer drop to 1007.  Temperatures Max Temperature wil reach 31 in the valley while the lowest temp will be around 18 C. The 13 degrees temperature range is ideal. Dewpoint around 6 and humidity at 20%. Clouds A high cloud base of 3.700m is expected but most of thermals will not reach cloud base. Cloud tops will reach +400 m from cloudbase. Inversion levels   will be at 800, 2100 and 3000m. Thermals that will break the 3000m inversion will create a Cu. Thermals Thermals power will be at peak 4,5m/s.  Most of them will stop climbing at 2400-2500 m, above mountains will go higher up to 3200m at different areas. Ideal Thermal zone will be between 1200 and 2200m for fast flying. Winds at different altitudes Gusts at ground will reach 16-18 kph. ground SE <5kph 600m SE 10kph 1200m SSE 5kph 1800m North 5 2400m W 15kph 3000m W 5kph 3000+ n/a Potential of the Day Expected Average Speed 27,5kph Potential Task 120km Rain % =0% Day start at 12.00h Day duration 4,5h