German Open 2024, Krusevo July 20th 2024 Soaring Weather Forecast

 

An unstable airmass is establidhed in the Balkan area, with a frontal zone developing in the North Weast of Krusevo at 150-200km. This will have a domino impact in the area very close to the Krusevo valley from the west.

Winds have swiched to south east in a low level and south west above 2100m. 

Instability will express its self early in the afternoon from the West and NW, bringing overdevelopment and showers west of Krusevo which will bring shadow in the area, and will increase the possibility the unstable weather to pass in the Bitola area.

Krusevo valley is well protected from the North due to mountains but it is more vulnerable to south winds which will bring high humidity area in the hot valley and according to the Skew-T diagram if the surface temperature exceeds 37 then ...boom in the vally around 15.00

At 11.00 first Cu develop above high mountains. 

at 12.00 further development above mountains

at 13.00 we have spread out to the west and shadow with rain possibility above Ochrid , Promachoi and close to Skopje and Cu in the valley evolve.

at 14.00 spreadout in the valley

at 15.00 possible showers close to Krusevo from the west side

at 16.00 instability breaks and the sky opens to the NE while a next cycle starts with valley precipitation at 17.00

More Details

The Barometer drops by 5mb. This will bring South winds bringing humid air in the valley after 12.00h

Temperature rang from minimum 26C to max 37C. Above 37 C there is a Shower possibility

Dewpoint 10,5C close to Krusevo13,5 in the North and 11,5 in the south as a lot of humidity exists in the Green areas WNW of Krusevo valley.

Humidity starts with 20% but may increase in the low level afte 12.00 when humid South breeze will feed the area.

Clouds

Cloud bases 3500m at start above the less humid areas

Cloud tops up to 5.500m in the west with potential areas to give higher tops as they will be fed in the valleys with more humid air.

Cloud types expected are Cu, Cu Con, everdeveloped Cu horizontally from the west to the east and Showers West in the Ochrid areas with potential to move to the east and possible rain also to the north.

Coverage up to 80% in the west and 20-40% in the middle of the valley. However the last forecasts show that the valley is less humid always than the models predict.

Inversions 700,2100, 3500m

Thermals ideally 4,5m/s

Thermals theoretically climb up to 2600m at 15.00h

Ideal Thermal Zone is 1400-2200m

Winds

Gust 20 from the South

Ground SE <10kph

600m SE <10kph

1200m SE <10kph

1800 S<10kph

2400m SW 10-12kph

3000m SW 10-15kph

3600m SW20 kph

Potentials

Day starts at 11.00

Peak 12.00-15.00

Decline after 15.00

Potential duration 2,5h

XC Speed 37kph

Potential Task <90 kph

RAIN possible 0,4mm after 15.00 in the West and SE