German Open 2024 Krusevo Soaring Weather Forecast July 18th

 

Summary

There is a frontal zone developing in the area, created to Albania borders and moving towards the east , delayed by the mountains and faster above flat ground which will affect the area around 16.00. West of Krusevo it will slowly move but at Kastoria area it will move faster.

NorthEast winds slightly increases at all levels and turns to 12kph North above 3.000m

7000top clouds will start to create after 13.00 visual from the west valleys and creating shade which will be effective after 15.30 when the sun will start falling to the west horizon.

Rain is expected very close to the west at 16.00h

Initially some clouds will be seen at 13.00 to the west expandind rapidly vertically and horizontally after 14.00h both to the west and east.

Cloud coverage up to 100% at 18.00

However there is a window of opportunity if the front passes more easily to the south from Greek flat areas and the west mountains will avoid impact in the area of Krusevo, especially due to the continental air which will stop clouds towering above 4000m in the area.

Details

Barometer stabilized to 1006 like yesterday at 15.00h

Temperatures

minimum 27 increased

maximum 39 increased

Range 12degrees, showing unstable conditions but related with low temperature contrast on the ground, long thermal cycles and weak thermals close to ground while high thermals above the first inversion above 1000m will be significantly stronger

Dewpoint in the valley at 10,5 C

Clouds

Cloudbase 3000-3300m at 15.00 in the valley

Cumulus widely develop in the valley, with high tops fastly overdeveloping horizontally and vertically after 14.00

Cu Congestus in the east at 16.00 and Shower clouds at 7000m in the west at 16.00 widely spread to the Albanian border with a mini cold front spreading across a 150km arc from north to south faster moving 70km to the south but delayed by the mountains in Krusevo area.

Cloud coverage significantly increases after 14.00 maximized at 16.00 reaching 100% in the west and bringing shadow in the area after 15.30

Inversion 750, 1500 (rising later to 2000) and 2900 (rising later to 3150m)

Thermals 

low 2m/s <1000m, +4m/s>1000m, +4,5>1500 +5m/s >2000m

Ideal Thermal zone 1500-3000m

Winds

Gust 25kph

Surface NE 10kph

600m NE 13kph

1800m NE 13kph

2400m NE 10kph

3000m North 10kph

3600m North 10-14kph

Potential of the Day

Conditions start at 12.00

Conditions decline theoretically (without Shadow) after 17.00 

Flight duration 4h

expected XC speed 40kph

Potential task >100km (with limitations of shade)

Peak of the Day 13.00-17.00 I believe 13.00-15.00 is ideal for a fast task before overdevelopment