German Open 2024 Krusevo, Soaring Weather Forecast July 16th

 

Summary

The day seems better than Monday as the North winds slow down above 2000m

Comparing to the previous day conditions will increase more gradually after 13.00 reaching a peak at 16.00, then will be smoother

the first clouds will appear to the north west of Krusevo around 12.00 and gradually come closer above the take off at 13.00 and create a line of clouds across the mountain ridge.

In the beginning thermals will not reach easily more than 2000m.

Later in the day other clouds will appear south of Prilep at 14.00 and will gradually expand in the middle of the valley between Krusevo and Bitola at 15.00. Later they will move more to the south to bitola area, but this will combine with a high cloud at 5.700m in the west that will create shadow on the area after 17.00.

 

More Details

Barometer: slightly drop by 1mb, expecting thinner thermal inversions 

Humidity: drops 2%,  almost 10% meaning a high density air and a lot of kinetic energy to thermals and winds

Dewpoint: similar to the previous day

Temperatures 25-38 in the valley with a range of 13 C documenting instability and thermals across all altitudes.

The max Temp of 38 minimizes temperature contrast on the ground, meaning that we have weaker thermals close to the ground and longer thermal cycles

Clouds as described in the summary, with cloud base > 3100 later in the afternoon.

Inversions expected at 800m, 2000m (wind change altitude) and 3500m 

Thermals

+2m/s below 1000m

+4m/s between 1000 and 1400m

+5m/s between 1400 and 2500m

Ideal Thermal Zone 1400-2500m

Thermal tops will vary. Early in the day they will reach 1900-2000m later 2400 at 15.00h and 2800 at 17.00h

Winds - slightly drop comparing to yesterday

Gusts 25-27kph at 15.00h

from Ground to 1800m East winds 10 kph

above 2000 winds switch to North and reach 17kph at 2400m

at 3000m NNE winds 22 kph

at 3600m North winds 20kph

Day Potentials

Conditions start at 12.00 and drop after 17.00

Peak of the day 13.00-17.00h

Assumed XC speed 30-37 kph better above high ground

Potential task duration 3h 

Potential task Km=100

Rain possibility 0% expected Showers in Albania not affecting the area.

Good Luck for a great Task!

Evangelos