Flymaster Open 2014 , Krushevo - Soaring Forecast

 

Summary of the Day - Task 3

The Frontal zone of Albania and West of Greece is intensive. The phenomena will not affect as directly but indirectly with Shower clouds that will appear to the west and move south of our area. 

In the beginning the day will be blue.

After 11.00h we will see the first clouds in the west (base 2600m) and North mountains. 

at 13.00 we have a development of many Cumulus around the valley closing around the blue circle of Krusevo valley.

at 14.00 we have extensive Cu clouds with a lot of shade, connecting and mooving to the south east of the valley. 

at 15.00 they will disappear, sun will increase and there will be a second cycle.

at 16.00 there will be high clouds to the west (90% coverage) that will bring again shadow in the valley, breaking the thermal activity.

Winds from the NE across all levels, maybe slightly ENE less that today but with higher gusts at 1500 >25kph.

Details

Barometer

Increases by 1mb vs. yesterday increasing slightly the air kinetic energy and thermal power

Temperatures

Min T =23

Max T=35

DT=12 C optimal for unstable conditions at all levels

Dewpoint will be 10,5 in the west, 9,5 in the east

Humidity decreases by 2% increasing cloubase levels and kinetic energy with a possibility to increase wind Gusts >25kph.

Cloud base initially expected 2600m in the west, increasing to 3000m in the west and >>3000 in the east at 14.00

Cloud tops +2500 in the west like yesterday and up to +900m in the east Cu clouds.

Coverage will be variable, 80% in the North west and 90% in the west and south shading the area.

Thermals

+2m/s up to 750m, +3m/s up to 1700m, +4m/s up to 2000m and >4,5m/s above 2000m.

Speed to fly thermal zone 1700-2800m

Winds

Gusts max 29kph

0m North East 10kph

600m North East 15kph

1200m North East 15kph

1800m North East 15kph Gust 25+

2400m NorthNorthEast 12kph

3000m North 17kph

3600m North <10kph

Day Potential

XC speed expected >35kph

Day starts 12.00h

Day declines 19.00

Day Peak of Conditions 13.00-18.00 but due to possible shadow 13.00-16.30

Potential task max 90km