German Open 2024 Krusevo Soaring Weather Forecast Juky 19th

 

Summary

An organized cold fron line is passing from Romania to Bulgaria. 

Very unstable conditions with Shower clouds and isolated thunderstorms are trapped in the area of Albania, with significant instability maximizing the possibility for TS clouds around 16.00h.

The winds will drop comparing to the previous day 

Overdevelopment is expected with early clouds in the valley at 13.00h and fast expansion horizontally and vertically after 14.00h

There are 3 areas of higher isolated TS close to Krusevo, one is 30km in the North, Ochrid area in the west and Florina area in the south border with Greece. 16.00-17.00h is the most possible time for shadow and rain.

The thermals of the day are expected less strong than yesterday, especially close to the ground as the very high predicted ground temperature of 39 minimizes themp contrast on the ground and induces long cycles for house thermals to evolve and long pauses.

More details

Barometer is dropping by 2mb making the air to feel lighter and gusts less stronger. 

Temperature range at 12 C (minimum 27 and higher 39) 

Dewpoint at 10 C

Humidity is unchanged , maintained at 15%, however this is high if we compare it with the previous week, icreasing the possibility for towering Cumulus and shower clouds due to high latent vaporization heat. I expect that cloud sucking will accelerate close to the cloudbase, so be carefull with altitude and exit strategy.

Clouds

Cloudbase is expected at 2800 m and later at 3100m above less humid grounds while cloud tops are estimated at the beggining at 4.000m then at 14.00h up to 5.500m and especially to the Nort, West and South we will have vertical overdevelopment up to 6.500m. The conditions in thse areas may evolve to TS clouds.

Cloud coverage will start at 10% after 12.00 but booming conditions predict up to 100% cloud coverage in the area after 14.00h

Inversion Levels 750m, 2100m

Thermals

Updrafts of +5m/s expected above 2100m, while from 1300-2000m +4m/s are expected and below 1000m +2m/s

Winds

Gusts 20kph

Ground East<10kph

600m East <10kph

1200m East <10kph

1800m East <10kph

2400m North 5kph

3000m NW 5kph

3600m NW 5kph

Due to the low synoptic winds at all levels and the powerful clouds, local winds can be affected and local breezes may significantly change direction creating surface winds that will follow the big clouds with gusts >30kph on the ground close to the TS areas.

Potential 

Day conditions start at 13.00

Conditions theoretically decline at 17.00 but due to Shade at 16.00,

Expected Duration of flight 2,5h

Average XC speed 35kph

Potential task 90km