German Open 2024 Krusevo Soaring Weather Forecast July 17th

 

Summary

Epic Cu sky day with cloud bases of 4000m but with a risk for overdevelopment after 15.30h

Early clouds to the west , south and south east which will overdevelop during the early afternoon.

winds increase by 5 kph at all levels and turn from the east at low and high level

Valley full of clouds at 15.00h with a coverage  20% in the center of the valley and much more in the west south and south east areas > 40km from Krusevo.

No rain prediction but sky full of Cu everywhere with blue areas in the middle and the north-east areas of Krusevo valley.

a lot of shadow due to overdevelopment is expected after 15.30 in the area from Krusevo to Bitola.

More details

Barometer: icreases by 1mb, slightly stronger inversions

Temperatures

min Temp=26 (higher 1 C)

max Temp=39 (higher 1 C)

Very hot on the ground with less contrast in temperature

Humidity increases by 2%. Higher temperature and humidity indicate a potential for clouds everywhere across the valley with areas of overdevelopment in the west south and south east with cloud tops >5.500m

Clouds

first west, south and south east around 12.00. Then overdevelopment in the perimeter of the valley and many Cu in the center of the valley at 13.00

Cloudbases expected 4000m

Cloud types Cu, Cu Cong

Cloud tops +400m above the valley center but up to 5.500m tops expected in the NW, W, S and SE of the valley creating significant shade after 15.30-16.00 in the respective areas.

Coverage Higher in the perimeter of the valley mainly in the south areas with open areas north of Prilep

Inversion levels 800m, 2000, 4000m at 15.00h

Thermals 

Powe r+3m/s to +4m/s above 1000m, +5m/s from 1500m to 2500m 

Thermal Tops 2800m early up to 3300m later in the afternoon

Ideal Thermal Zone 1500-2500m

Winds at 15.00h

Gusts 25-33kph at 15.00

0m East 12kph (increased 20%)

600m East 14kph

1200m East 14kph

1800m East 12kph

2400m NE 10kph

3000m North 10kph

3600m North 10kph

Potential of the day

Conditions start at 12.00h

Conditions decline after 18.00h

Peak of the day 13.00-18.00

Potential XC speed >40kph

Flight Duration 3h due to shade

Potential Task >100km

Rain % N/A