18th FAI Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast 13th Aug

 

Summary of the day

• Back to Normality, or close to it. 
• We still have increased barometer by 1mb maintaining high air density and strong inversion
• Humidity is staying low within the Pelagonia valley below 2000m, but above the inversion higher humidity air is approaching us from the west.
• Initially blue sky, but early we will see Cu clouds appearing from the west and above the ridges.
• These clouds will reach 3.300m cloudbase at 16.00h but in the valley Cloudbase will be lower.
• we expect 65% cloud coverage to the west-NW and also SE of Prilep and South of Bitola, but the valley will be more open with coverage around 10-15%
• Cloud tops +2.000m, reaching 5300m to the west, and we will see spreadout and Ac clouds in the afternoon that may create shadow in our valley.
• Rain is expected in Albania and Bulgaria 
• Average thermals at 3m/s and the usual inversion of 1800m, later at 2100m
• Thermals will break the inversion after 14.30 in the valley, but above high ground this will happen earlier.
• Predicted winds are from the NE below 18kph at all levels, stronger and compressed below the inversion, and as the inversion climbs higher these winds will further drop.
• South of Bitola cloud coverage is expected higher at 16.00 and surface winds at that time at 22kph from the NNE

More Details:

Barometric pressure: increase 1mb

Temperatures: 22-32 C   

Dewpoint: 7 C

Humidity at low level:  30%  

Humidity Boundary layer: 60% east and 85% west

Cloud base: max 3300m above high mountains at 16.00

Cloud tops: +2000m above humid areas

Cloud types:  Cu, spreadout after 15.00 to the west, Ac later in the afternoon 

Cloud Coverage: 60% west, 15% above the valley, higher in the middle of the valley and south of Bitola

Inversion levels: 1800m, later 2100m

Energy flow:  better to east valley at 430w/m2 less at the North valley

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: 3100 to the west ridges, and 2700 in the valley after 15.00

Thermals at Altitude: +2,2m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m , +4m/s at 2000m     

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1400-2300m  

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 25 kph valley and 30+ kph mountains

0m:  NE 15 kph trend to drop with gust 25

600m:  NE 18 kph trend to drop  

1200m:  NE 18 kph trend to drop  

1800m: NE 18 kph  

2400m NNE 18kph   

3000m NNE 15 kph  

3600m: NE 12 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 11.00  (up to 1800m)

Conditions decline after: 16:00   (up to 2750m)

Conditions Best Period: 14:00-16:00h  inversion broken at 14.30  

Conditions Peak time: at 16.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  3 h

Calculated XC Speed:  40+ kph

Expected Task Distance   N/A

Convergence lines: Prilep to Bitola

Rain Forecast: N/A

Skew-T at 14.00h