18th European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast 11th Aug

  

Summary of the day

• The Pelagonia Valley maintained its autonomy in relation to the weather and was not affected by the disturbance we had in Albania and Greece, giving us nice conditions for flying.
• The air mass of our area remains the same, as the Barometric pressure is the same compared to yesterday-around 1010mb, as well as the temperature range (22-33) giving good triggering and forming organized thermals from low. However, the day may have slightly weaker  with less visual sines, and it may have longer thermal cycles.
• Humidity at high altitude drops 10% and clouds will be less in the area.
• The inversion will be a little thicker, from 1800-2200m. 
• Thermals will break the inversion over the mountains where we expect Cu clouds - probably less, while in the valley cloud coverage is predicted very low.
• Again the wind will be low North-East 10-15 kph while above 2200m it will be north 20 kph at all altitudes up to 3600m.
• The day will have organized conditions from 11.30-12.00 while the conditions will reach their peak at 14.00
• An XC speed of 42 kph seems feasible, and the conditions will be suitable for at least 3 hours.
• We expect to see a convergence line from Prilep to Bitola
• So we expect for a blue day with a stronger inversion and clouds above ridges 

More Details:

Barometric pressure: similar 1010mb

Temperatures: 22-33 C  same-good contrast for thermal triggering

Dewpoint: 10 C North valley and 6 C at Bitola area same 

Humidity at low level:  30% unchanged

Humidity Boundary layer: 30% less than yesterday

Cloud base: max 3000m

Cloud tops: +400m from cloudbase above high ground to the west

Cloud types: Cu  to the west side of the valley

Cloud Coverage: <10%

Inversion levels: 1800m -2200m thicker than yesterday with wind change 

Energy flow:  better to east valley at 300w/m2 (yesterday 230)

Average Thermal expected +2.8m/s  

Thermal tops: 2200-2550m

Thermals at Altitude: +2,6m/s at 1000m, +3,6m/s at 1500m      

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1300-2000m  

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 23 kph valley -28 kph mountains

0m:  ENE 10-15 kph 

600m: ENE 10-15 kph

1200m:  ENE 10-15 kph 

1800m: NE 15 kph

2400m N 20kph  

3000m N 20 kph 

3600m: N 20 kph 

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00  same to previous day up to 2300m

Conditions decline after: 15:30   

Conditions Best Period: 12:00-15:30h    

Conditions Peak time: at 14.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  3+ h

Calculated XC Speed:  42+ kph, similar to the previous day

Expected Task Distance   

Convergence lines: 

Rain Forecast: N/A

Skew-T at 14.00h