18th FAI European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast 10 Aug 26

 

Summary of the day

• On Sunday the forecast was a bit pessimistic but in the end the valley worked better than expected, and allowed us to fly exactly at the nominal XC speed of the area.  
• Inside the closed valley we fly, the air did not move and was not replaced, which means that tomorrow we expect the day to be similar to yesterday
• The barometric pressure is initially the same as yesterday, at 1015mb, but after 15.00 we expect an 1-2 mb drop, which means that at that time the whole valley will work better in relation to  thermals, the inversion will move higher and the cloud base may rise.
• Cumulus clouds will initially appear from the west, which at 12.00 will start to expand into the valley from the NW. At 13.00 we expect to have scattered Cu over the Pelagonia valley and to stay in the area for about two hours.
• From 14.00 there may be some overdevelopment to the west, with no impact to our valley. 
• As on Sunday, the clouds will develop  more over the mountains, in the Northwest of Krusevo and Northeast higher peaks.
• An inversion will be present at 1800-2000m, below which the wind will be ENE<15kph and above the inversion the wind will be from the NNW<20kph.
• Thermals of the day are expected similar (Average +3m/s) and will climb up to 2600.
• Cloud base will be at 2700 and later will increase up to 3100m at 15.00h.
• Surface gusts between 25-30kph
• a 3h task is possible at 38+ kp average Speed

More Details:

Barometric pressure: drop 1-2mb slightly reducing air density

Temperatures: 22-33 C  good contrast for thermal triggering

Dewpoint: 10 C North valley and 6 C at Bitola area

Humidity at low level: 25%-30% similar to yesterday 

Humidity Boundary layer: drops to 40-50% reducing the cloud top altitude in the valley

Cloud base: max 3100m

Cloud tops: +500m from cloudbase

Cloud types: Cu with spreadout to the west after 15.00h

Cloud Coverage: 50% to the west, valley prediction 25% to the north and less to the south

Inversion levels: 1800m -2000m with wind change

Energy flow:  better to east valley at 230w/m2

Average Thermal expected +2.8m/s  

Thermal tops: 2600m at high ground, 2300-2400m above flats 

Thermals at Altitude: +2,6m/s at 1000m, +3,6m/s at 1500m      

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1300-2000m  

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 25 kph valley -30 kph mountains

0m:  ENE 12 kph 

600m: ENE 12 kph

1200m:  ENE 15 kph 

1800m: ENE 15 kph

2400m NW 20kph  

3000m NNW 18 kph 

3600m: NW 18 kph 

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00  same to previous day

Conditions decline after: 17:00   

Conditions Best Period: 13:00-17:00h    

Conditions Peak time: at 14.30h 

Duration of Conditions:  3+ h

Calculated XC Speed:  38+ kph, similar to the previous day

Expected Task Distance  N/A

Convergence lines: N/A

Rain Forecast: 80km to yhe west and 100km to the East

Skew-T at 14.00h