18th FAI European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast 16th Aug

 

Summary of the day 16th Aug

• A similar day to yesterday, with a blue sky above the Pelagonia valley (at least early) and good temperatures for thermal triggering on the ground.
• More clouds in the west and less in the valley at first, but later-after 15.30 it is expected to develop Cu from North to South from convergence.
• The day will evolve slowly, and will last until late, with a sufficient time at 14.00 for the inversion to break at 2100, and good lift conditions until 17.00.
• Lower the wind will decrease but higher it will increase to 30kph from NW. This will create a shear level of 2100, where turbulence is expected before 15.30h, but later it will make convergence lines reachable above 2000m.
• The barometric pressure drops 2mb, the humidity is dropping 8%, and thermals are expected more bumpy. 
• Comparing the days I think that everything happens one hour later

Evangelos

More Details:

Barometric pressure: drop 2mb but remains high

Temperatures: 18-30 C   with 12 C contrast, a good sign for thermal triggering

Dewpoint: 4 C dropping 2 C

Humidity at low level: drops to 23% making conditions less smooth 

Humidity Boundary layer: further drops to 45% 

Cloud base: Theoretically at 3.300m, to the east side of the valley

Cloud tops: +500m

Cloud types:  Cu in the horizon with overdevelopment to the west of Krusevo 

Cloud Coverage: 35% to the west, and <10% to the North valley, but after 15.30 increasew up to 20% from North to south

Inversion levels: 1500 at 13.00, 2100m at 14.00 later 2600m and 3300m

Energy flow:  better to the east valley towards Prilep

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: max 2600m at 15.00h

Thermals at Altitude: +2,3m/s at 1000m (less than yesterday) , +3,7m/s at 1500m , +3,6m/s at 2000m  

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1300-2300m

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 15 kph valley and 30 kph take off, gusty

0m:  E 10 kph less than yesterday

600m:  E 10 kph

1200m:  E 10 kph

1800m: ENE 10 kph  

2400m NW 30 kph increased

3000m NW 30 kph  

3600m: NNW 20 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00  (up to 1650m) later and slowly vs yesterday

Conditions decline after: 17:00   (up to 2600m)

Conditions Best Period: 14:00-17:00h   

Conditions Peak time: at 16.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  3 h

Calculated XC Speed:  40 kph  

Expected Task Distance   <100km

Convergence lines: Prilep to Bitola and Valley center

Rain Forecast: N/S

                                                                      Skew-T at 14.00h