18th FAI European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast 17th Aug

  

Summary of the day 16th Aug

• A new weather disturbance is approaching our region on August 18, with cold front phenomena that will affect the Balkans in 2 days.
• For the 17th, as usual, the low atmosphere of our valley will be similar to the previous day, but we may have changes at high altitude, such as an increase in humidity at high altitude that will be >80% west of Krusevo.
• Tomorrow we will see some signs of this disturbance, such as overdevelopment from the west.
• Initially, the first Cu will appear from the west at 13.00. Later they will pass in the valley. After 15.00 we will have overdevelopment in the West and spreadout that will create shadow first on the western side of the Pelagonia valley and after 16.00 we will have large clouds throughout the valley.
• Cloud cover in the valley will reach 50-55% while west of Kruševo it will reach 80% at 15.00.
• Thermals similar to the previous day will average 3m/s, and will perhaps reach 5m/s around 15.00 in specific places and above the inversion.
• Again inversion initially 1600, later 2500m and 3700m.
• Winds drops further at all altitudes.
• Cloud base at 3500m with thermals that will initially reach 2500, but after 15.00 they may reach 3,450m.

So, we fly with no wind and Cu clouds that may increase in the valley and create shadow after 15.00

Evangelos

More Details:

Barometric pressure: drop 4mb 

Temperatures: 20-32 C   with 12 C contrast, a good sign for thermal triggering

Dewpoint: 7 C 

Humidity at low level: same at 23%

Humidity Boundary layer: icreases from the west to 80% 

Cloud base: 3500+ at 15.00

Cloud tops: +500m, west up to +1300m reaching 4800m

Cloud types:  Cu, Cu Congestus to the west late in the afternoon 

Cloud Coverage: 55% Valley and 80% at West 

Inversion levels: 1600 early, and later at 2500m. Second inversion at 3700m

Energy flow:  better to the east valley towards Prilep

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: max 2600m at 15.00h later at 3500m

Thermals at Altitude: +2,5m/s at 1000m (more than yesterday) , +4.0m/s at 1500m , +4.0m/s at 2000m  , +3.8m/s at 2500m

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1400-2700m

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 15 kph valley and 22 kph take off, gusty

0m:  E <5 kph less than yesterday

600m:  E <5 kph

1200m:  E <10 kph

1800m: Variable  

2400m NW 10 kph increased

3000m NW 20 kph  

3600m: NW 25 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 13.00   

Conditions decline after: 17:00   

Conditions Best Period: 14:00-17:00h   

Conditions Peak time: at 15.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  3 h

Calculated XC Speed:  40 kph  

Expected Task Distance   95 Km due to possible shadow in the Valley after 15.00h

Convergence lines: Middle of the Valley

Rain Forecast: N/S

SKEW-T