18th FAI European Paragliding Championshios Weather forecast 14 Aug

  

Summary of the day

The disturbance we talked about yesterday, with Clouds and Precipitation, is going to cross our area from West to East somewhere between 13.00 and 14.00. 

The day will start with a blue valley and many Cu clouds to the west followed by overdevelopment at 13.00 and expansion of Cu in the Valley with 70-80% cloud coverage. 

At some time it is expected to have a Thunderstorm above Krusevo between 13.00-14.00 with 55% probability. 

At 15.00 a thunderstorm is expected west of Bitola, East of Prilep at Tzena mountain, and a large Cb cell at Florina at 13.00.

After that overdevelopment and shadow is expected in the east valley, but no rain is expected to the north of Prilep until later in the afternoon with a cascade of Thunderstorms across all the country from the west to the east.

With a little luck it may be possible for a short task to the north part of the valley, but we will reconsider in the morning the forecast.

Evangelos

More Details:

Barometric pressure: drops between 13.00 and 14.00

Temperatures: 20-30 C   

Dewpoint: 10 C

Humidity at low level:  increases by 10% to 40%  

Humidity Boundary layer: 60% east and 85% west

Cloud base: 2600m but at 14.00 will drop lower

Cloud tops: +5600m at Krusevo, 9.900m west of Bitola

Cloud types:  Cu, Cu congestus, Cu with spreadout, Cirrus and Cb after 14.00 layers from west to east 

Cloud Coverage: Krusevo 80% at 14.00, North valley at 20%but later 70%

Inversion levels: 1900m later 2200m

Energy flow:  east 250w/m2 west 50w/m2

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: 2700m above the mountain but at 14.00 drops below 2200m

Thermals at Altitude: +2,2m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m , +4m/s at 2000m     

Ideal Thermal Zone:   2000-2500m but uncertain  

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 25 kph valley and 30 kph take off

0m:  NE 15 kph trend to drop with gust 25 

600m:  NE 15

1200m:  NE 15

1800m: NE 15 kph  

2400m N 18 kph   

3000m N 25 kph  

3600m: NNW 5 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00  (up to 1800m)

Conditions decline after: 15:00   (up to 2450m)

Conditions Best Period: 12:00-16:00h  but uncertain due to possible Cb

Conditions Peak time: at 15.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  2,5 h

Calculated XC Speed:  40 kph

Expected Task Distance   N/A

Convergence lines: N/A

Rain Forecast: Krusevo 13.00-14.00, Bitola 14.30, East of Prilep 13.00, Florina 13.00-14.00 

                                                                      Skew-T at 14.00h