18th FAI European Championships Weather Forecast Aug 12th

   

Summary of the day

• A barometric high pressure has been established in our area.
• The barometric pressure is increasing by another 2 mb reinforcing yesterday's picture in which the clouds decreased and the air density increased.
• This means even fewer clouds, probably a blue valley while in the west horizon we may have thin Cu at 4,300m.
• Some clouds may also appear in the north higher mountains with a base that at 16.00 will reach 3800m.
• There will be a strong inversion at 2000m and one at 3750m.
• The main challenge we have to face is the intensity of the northeast wind and the gusts that at takeoff may exceed 35kph
• The average wind intensity in the thermal layer will be 26-27 kph
• Strong but broken thermals due to high NE winds with significant turbulence at 2000m
• As there is hope that the forecast will change and the high wind will remain to higher altitudes, we will update the forecast early in the morning

More Details:

Barometric pressure: increase 2mb

Temperatures: 22-33 C   

Dewpoint: 3-5 C

Humidity at low level:  30%  

Humidity Boundary layer: 30% 

Cloud base: max 4300m above high mountains

Cloud tops: +400m 

Cloud types: thin Cu to the west and North

Cloud Coverage: 0%

Inversion levels: 2000m , 3750m

Energy flow:  better to east valley at 320w/m2 same

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: 2500m at 14.00 later 2600m, in the NE of the Valley expected 2800m

Thermals at Altitude: +2m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m , +4m/s at 2000m     

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1500-2500m  

WINDS at 15:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 28 kph valley and 35++ kph mountains

0m:  NE 20 kph trend to drop at 17.00

600m:  NE 22 kph trend to drop but increase Gusts

1200m:  NE 28 kph trend to drop but increase Gusts

1800m: NE 28 kph trend to increase 

2400m NE 33kph  trend to increase 

3000m NE 31 kph trend to increase

3600m: NE 31 kph trend to increase

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00  (1850m)

Conditions decline after: 16:00   

Conditions Best Period: 13:00-16:00h    

Conditions Peak time: at 14.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  3 h

Calculated XC Speed:  45+ kph

Expected Task Distance   N/A

Convergence lines: Krusevo to Bitola

Rain Forecast: N/A

Skew-T at 14.00h