18th European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast 19th Aug

   

Summary of the day 19th Aug

• The cold front passed very close to us but did not invade the dry and protected valley of Pelagonia. Instead, it passed from the south as we had assumed, and it only created overdevelopment and just a few drops of rain in Krusevo.

Lightnings afternoon 18th of Aug 16:30

• This front leaves behind in our area an increased barometric pressure by +4mb and a lower minimum temperature by -2 C. Also the humidity is about the same, maybe a +5% increase.
• This means that we will have increased air density, a stronger inversion, and a turn of the winds at high altitude from W to NW. At the same time we will have smaller large clouds around the mountains and more small Cu clouds over the valley after 13.00.
• Due to the fact that the air of the valley has not been replaced under the inversion, we assume good triggering again and thermals +3m/s like the previous day. The conditions seem like spring.
• More clouds in the West and North with cloud cover up to 80% but the valley will be around 20% coverage. In the West we expect overdevelopment and shadows after 14.00, but at that time we will have scattered clouds at 2900m and later 3300m cloud base.
• The inversion will make it difficult for thermals to climb up to 2300m, but stronger thermals will accelerate above the inversion, higher towards cloudbase.
• Low winds will be E 10kph and above the inversion from NW 15kph
• Due to the inversion and increased air density, the day will improve gradually with peak conditions at 16.00.
• This will give us about 2.5 hours after 14.00 with good conditions for a task of around 80km
• The combination of winds creates conditions for convergence within the valley from Prilep to the city of Bitola after 14.30.

Evangelos

More Details:

Barometric pressure: increase 4mb 

Temperatures: 19-32 C   with 13 C contrast, very good thermal triggering

Dewpoint: 9 C same

Humidity at low level: same at 25% same

Humidity Boundary layer: 60% North and 50% South Valley, assuming  first Cu to the North valley 

Cloud base: initially 2900m later 3300m at 16.00

Cloud tops: +500-1000m 

Cloud types:  Cu and some Cirrus in the morning 

Cloud Coverage: 80%-west and north and 20% in the valley

Inversion levels: 1700, 2700 and 4000m. 

Energy flow:  220W/m2 in the middle of the valley

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: max 2750m at 16.00 

Thermals at Altitude: +2,8m/s at 1000m , +3.6m/s at 1500m , +3.6m/s at 2000m  

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1400-2200m

WINDS at 15:00 

Wind Gust at Surface: 17 kph in the valley and 25kph at take off

0m:  E 10 kph

600m:  ENE 10 kph

1200m:  ENE 10 kph

1800m: N 5 kph  

2400m NW 15 kph  

3000m NW 15 kph  

3600m: NW 20 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00 -earlier (no shade)   

Conditions decline after: 16:30   

Conditions Best Period: 14:00-16:30h   

Conditions Peak time: at 16.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  2,5 h

Calculated XC Speed:  40+ kph  

Expected Task Distance   80 Km 

Convergence lines: Prilep to Bitola after 14.30

Rain Forecast:  N/S

SKEW-T