18th European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast for 18th of Aug

  

Summary of the day 18th Aug

• The cold front will pass east of our region
• The disturbance will bring phenomena, including specific clouds and possible precipitation.
• The barometric pressure drops rapidly after 13.00 which is the time when we will have overdevelopment in the area, and the clouds will peak early at 15.30-16.00.
• Initially we will have some Cu over the takeoff ridge from 11.00
• at 12.00 we will have more clouds in Krusevo and Prilep
• at 13.00 we will have overdevelopment from the west and Cu will develop in the northern valley.
• at 14.00 Strong Convergence from North to South and from West to East towards Prilep and possible rain SE of Prilep
• At 15.00 overdevelopment everywhere + rain east of Prilep, Cu Congestus, Ac, As and Cb clouds
• As the place is protected and we have low humidity in the valley, I think that it could be possible to fly, but with more clouds than yesterday and more Complex sky, with 80% cloud coverage and showers all around but outside our valley at 16.00.

So, at first the day seems similar with more and bigger clouds, but the conditions seem tricky, and we must reconsider in the morning for better accuracy. Early in the day we may have established West wind at the take off.

Evangelos

More Details:

Barometric pressure: drop 2mb 

Temperatures: 20-32 C   with 12 C contrast, a good sign for thermal triggering

Dewpoint: 9 C 

Humidity at low level: same at 23% same

Humidity Boundary layer: icreases from yesterday to the east of Krusevo 

Cloud base: 3500+ at 15.00

Cloud tops: +1700-2100m reaching 5600 m (yesterday 4800m)

Cloud types:  Cu, Cu Congestus, Ac, As, Cb early in the afternoon

Cloud Coverage: 85%-yesterday 55% 

Inversion levels: 1800 early, and later at 2300m. Second inversion at 4600 (yesterday 3700m)

Energy flow:  better to the east valley towards Prilep

Average Thermal expected +3m/s  

Thermal tops: max 2600m at 15.00h later at 3500m

Thermals at Altitude: +2,8m/s at 1000m , +4.0m/s at 1500m , +3.5m/s at 2000m  

Ideal Thermal Zone:   1300-2100m

WINDS at 15:00 - increase

Wind Gust at Surface: 24 kph valley and 28kph take off

0m:  E 15 kph

600m:  E 19 kph

1200m:  ENE 19 kph

1800m: ENE 15kph  

2400m W 13kph  

3000m W 26 kph  

3600m: W 15 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 13.00   

Conditions decline after: 17:00   

Conditions Best Period: 14:00-17:00h   

Conditions Peak time: at 15.00h 

Duration of Conditions:  3 h

Calculated XC Speed:  35 kph  

Expected Task Distance   80 Km but uncertain due to overdevelopment

Convergence lines: North to South and Krusevo to Prilep

Rain Forecast: SE of Prilep, North of the valley and west of the Valley after 15.30h

SKEW-T