Flymaster Open Weather Forecast Wednesday 15th 2026

Soaring Weather Forecast: Unstable Airmass Conditions

General Synopsis

An unstable airmass will dominate the region today, likely inducing early-morning overdevelopment and extensive cloud cover. Convective activity will initiate slowly, but rapid vertical development (cu-nim/overdevelopment) is expected after 14:00, bringing a high probability of afternoon precipitation.

Cloud Cover & Precipitation Timeline

• 14:00 – Cloud cover over Kruševo will sit at 45% with a low 10% probability of precipitation (PoP).
• 15:00 – Significant overdevelopment (80% cloud cover) will shadow the surrounding high terrain, while the valley center remains open at 50% cloud cover.
• 16:30 – Precipitation risk increases significantly to a 50% possibility, with a high likelihood of localized rain showers cutting off soaring conditions.

Thermal Profile & Convective Ceiling Timeline
Thermal strength and thermal updrafts will cycle and develop very slowly during the first half of the day due to early shadowing, before peaking late in the afternoon:

• 12:00 – Thermal ceilings capped at 1,300m ASL.
• 13:00 – Convective layer expands slightly, with thermal tops reaching 1,700m ASL.
• 16:30 – Maximum thermal ceilings will peak at 2,900m ASL, though rapidly rising humidity and rain risk will compromise safety.

However, there is a possibility that the Pelagonia Valley ecosystem will work indepentendly slowing the process and delay the rain after 17.30, offering the opportunity for a short triangle flight in the valley east of Krusevo.

More Details

Barometric pressure: drops 3mb

Temperatures: 21-34, (13 C)

Dewpoint: increase to 11 C

Humidity at low level: slight increase at lower level.  

Humidity Boundary layer: Increases >75% at higher level

Cloud base: Expected at 3.000-3300m at 16:30  

Cloud tops: +2500m (5500-5800m)

Cloud types: Cu, Cu cong, Shower clouds, potential Thunderstorm

Cloud Coverage: up to 80%

Inversion levels: 1900m, 2800m  

Energy flow: More energy to Prilep area

Average Thermal expected at 2,8m/s 

Thermal tops: 2900m

Thermals at Altitude: +2,6m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m and above

Ideal Thermal Zone: 1300m-2500m at 15.00

WINDS at 14:00

Wind Gust at Surface:30 kph at take off  20kph valley surface gusts

0m:  E 10kph

600m:  E 10kph

1200m:  E 10kph 

Inversion /Shear at 1900m

1800m: N 10

2400m NW 20 kph

3000m NW 27 kph 

3600m: NW 25

Conditions start Organizing: 12.00 up to 1300m

Conditions decline after: 16.30

Conditions Best Period: 13:00-17:00h  

Conditions Peak time: at 15.30h

Duration of Conditions: 3h

Calculated XC Speed: 32 kph

Expected Task Distance 60-70 km

Convergence lines: East Valley

Rain Forecast: 50% at 16:30h 33% for Thunderstorm, Expected Duration 1,5h

Skew-T at 14.00h