Flymaster Open Weather Forecast Sat 18th July

  

Soaring Weather Forecast

General Synopsis

An approaching cold front passing north of our region is bringing convective instability, with a high probability of thunderstorms (TS) developing from the NW and NE between 13:30 and 14:30 LT. This frontal system will have more impact during Sunday.

Timeline

• 12:30 LT: Initial cumulus (Cu) development initiated over northern and western ridges.
• 13:00 LT: Widespread cumulus coverage established across the valley toward Prilep.
• 13:30 LT: Rapid overdevelopment across all sectors with localized rain showers breaking out to the north and NW.
• 14:00 LT: A thunderstorm development is possible to the north, pushing for convective cascading southwards into the valley.

Weather models consistently predict a delayed thermal onset followed by rapid, explosive overdevelopment and precipitation after 13:30 LT. The sky profile will quickly deteriorate from scattered Cu to dense Cumulus Congestus and extensive spreadout by mid-day.

Cloud Base & Vertical Development

• Valley Floor: Exceptionally high cloud bases clearing 3,600m+ AGL.
• Northern Sector: Lower cloud bases down to 2,500m AGL, with convective vertical cloud tops up to 6,000m  

Winds Aloft & Shear Profile

• (<1,900m): Light and variable, mainle from the ENE 10 kph.
• (>2,200m): Moderate to strong west-northwesterly tracking at 20–35 kph, with a wind shear zone 

More Details

Barometric pressure: drops 4 mb assuming instability in the area

Temperatures: 25-37, increasing the possibility for Overdevelopment and Showers

Dewpoint: 10-14  C, mixed air in different areas. Valley very dry comparing to yesterday - Turbulent thermals

Humidity at low level: 15% 

Humidity Boundary layer: 80%, increasing the propability for Showers

Cloud base: 2500 early, later possible at 3700m 

Cloud tops: initially 1900 m, later to the cloudbase

Cloud types: Cu, Cu cong, CBs, Spreadout everywhere

Cloud Coverage: up to 80% 

Inversion levels: 1900m Shear winds with NNW above this level

Energy flow: More energy to Prilep area - 260w/m2

Average Thermal expected +3m/s 

Thermal tops: usabvle early to 2300m, after 15.00 at 3700m 

Thermals at Altitude: +2,7m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m  

Ideal Thermal Zone:   

WINDS at 14:00

Wind Gust at Surface: Take off 36 kph, valley 25kph

0m:  ENE 10kph

600m: ENE 10kph

1200m:  ENE 10kph 

Inversion /Shear at 1900m

1800m: ENE <10

2400m NW 20 kph

3000m NW 35 kph 

3600m: NW 40 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 11.00/2150m, 12:00/2450m,15:00/3600m  

Conditions decline after: 17:00

Conditions Best Period: 12:00-17:00h  

Conditions Peak time: at 15.00h

Duration of Conditions:  

Calculated XC Speed:  

Expected Task Distance  

Convergence lines:  

Rain Forecast: Potential Showers to Krusevo, Prilep, Bitola and Solunska Glava

Skew-T at 14.00h