Flymaster Open Weather Forecast July 14th

  

General Synopsis

Compared to yesterday, Thursday will feature reduced cloud coverage, weaker thermal strength with lower top of lift levels, stronger inversions at 1600m and 2300m, and increased northerly winds above 2300 meters. The stronger North winds come closer to the ground, affecting us with Turbulence, drop of humidity and less clouds in the sky.
Thermal Quality & Convective Layer
  • Temperature Contrast: A significant temperature contrast of 13°C will allow thermals to trigger easily and remain well-organized at lower altitudes. Close to the ground we will have turbulent thermals with a lot of kinetic energy as the air density will be higher.
  • Stability: Strong inversions are present at 1,600 meters and 2.300 meters 
  • Thermal Tops: Thermals will roughly mix at the inversion levels leading to turbulence like the previous day, maybe more rough.
Wind Profile 
  • Wind Shift: Winds will back/veer to a more north direction compared to yesterday, which may mean an easier penetration into the valley.
  • Upper-Level Winds: Increased wind velocity aloft will create ideal conditions for mountain wave formation over the Tzena region.
  • Convergence: Expect low-level convergence lines and wave lift harmonics between Kruševo and Bitola, as well as in the northeastern sector of the valley.

More Details

Barometric pressure: climbs up 3mb from the previous day assuming stronger Inversion which may block high North Winds, however these winds are expected to significantly increase.

Temperatures: 18-31 (13 degrees, meaning good thermal triggering)

Dewpoint: 6 C  meaning blue skies with some thin Cu or rotor clouds in the lee side of mountains above 3.000m

Humidity at low level: Drops by 5% increasing air density 

Humidity Boundary layer: Drops due to the high North Continental winds

Cloud base: Expected above 3.000m  

Cloud tops: +400m 

Cloud types: Cu, Rotor-Cu

Cloud Coverage: 0%

Inversion levels: 1600m, 2300m lower than yesterday

Energy flow: better to Prilep area

Average Thermal expected at 2,6m/s above Krusevo, better at the valley, less than yesterday

Thermal tops: 2000-2200m

Thermals at Altitude: +2m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m

Ideal Thermal Zone: 1300m-2000m 

WINDS at 14:00

Wind Gust at Surface: 25kph at take of  18kph valley surface gusts

0m: NE 10kph

600m: NE 10kph

1200m: NE 10kph 

Inversion /Shear at 1600m

1800m: N 15 

2400m N 27 kph

3000m N 48 kph increased by 20kph at this altitude

3600m: N 58 kph Increased by 15kph at this altitude

Conditions start Organizing: 11.00 up to 1500m

Conditions decline after: 17.00

Conditions Best Period: 14:00-17:00h  

Conditions Peak time: at 15.00h

Duration of Conditions: 3h

Calculated XC Speed: 34 kph

Expected Task Distance 80-90 km

Convergence lines: between Krusevo and Bitola but also to the North East

Rain Forecast: N/A

Skew-T at 14.00h




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