Flymaster Open Weather Forecast for Thursday 16th of July

 

Soaring Weather Forecast: Cold Front Conditions

General Synopsis

Wednesday's rainfall has left the ground with high humidity, and the resulting low-level moisture will develop early Cu clouds.

Later in the day, weather conditions will be driven by a cold front approaching from the west, expected to move across our area around midday. The frontal passage will be accompanied by increasing cloud coverage and thunderstorms precipitation beginning from approximately 14:00 local time.

Compared to Wednesday conditions, precipitation is expected to arrive earlier, with widespread cloud coverage extending across the entire valley with vertical and horizontal overdevelopment.

Shady conditions are expected across the western, northern, and eastern sectors of our area, as well as over the valley, where cloud cover is likely to reach around 90%, resulting in prolonged shading.

From around 1400 local time, thunderstorms are expected to develop to our northwest. as a Cascade, there is a high probability of thunderstorms affecting both Prilep and Bitola 

More Details

Barometric pressure: drops 3mb

Temperatures: 24-34, (10 C)

Dewpoint: increase to 12 C

Humidity at low level: slight increase at lower level-27%.  

Humidity Boundary layer: 65% at higher level above 2000m

Cloud base: Expected at 3.000+ later will drop during precipitation  

Cloud tops: 7000m

Cloud types: Cu, Cu cong, Shower clouds, Cbs

Cloud Coverage: up to 90%

Inversion levels: 1900m  

Energy flow: More energy to Prilep area potential 1st Thunderstorm there, before Bitola

Average Thermal expected +4m/s 

Thermal tops: 2800m similar to yesterday

Thermals at Altitude: +2,5m/s at 1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m, +5m/s at 2000m

Ideal Thermal Zone: 1500m-2300m 

WINDS at 14:00

Wind Gust at Surface:35 kph at take off  30kph valley surface gusts

0m:  0

600m:  0

1200m:  0 

Inversion /Shear at 1900m

1800m: N <10

2400m N 10 kph

3000m N 15 kph 

3600m: N 20 kph

Conditions start Organizing: 10.30 up to 1900m, 11:00 up to 2500m

Conditions decline after: 14:00

Conditions Best Period: 11:00-13:30h  

Conditions Peak time: at 12.00h

Duration of Conditions: 2h

Calculated XC Speed: 45+ kph

Expected Task Distance N/A km

Convergence lines: N/A

Rain Forecast: 65% at 14:00h 

Skew-T at 14.00h