19th World Paragliding Championships Castelo Weather Forecast 6th Sep

 

Summary "Weaker conditions, Shorter day duration, Lower Wind loading, & Higher patience"

Barometer seems slightly to increase, and humidity/DP increases. This will weaken thermals comparing to yesterday and will reduce top of lift altitude to 1500m. 

A strong inversion layer will be established from1000-1300m. Below this layer the winds will be from the SSE at 10-12kph. Above 1300 the wind will bring humidity/stability from the east. Another inversion at 3000m will separate another SE wind layer of 20kph which will later increase up to 17.00h.

Weak soaring conditions may develop from the take off to the west side of Castelo, organizing thermals up to 1000-1300m close to the ridges. Later Cu clouds will appear to the North of the take off, with less coverage than yesterday to the far North. 

The sun energy flow is less than yesterday, creating weaker thermals and longer thermal cycles.

Conditions will work 30min later than yesterday, thermals will climb lower than yesterday, and the day conditions will start declining earlier than yesterday, offering a 2,5h task opportunity with 22-24kph XC speed, meaning that a task above 50km will be a success for the day to the West and SW direction.

Convergence line expected from the take off to the north. 

Rain possibility is less than 3% for the momment in the wider area.

I hope this forecast is close to reality as there is no remote "feeling" of the atmosphere for me from 9000km away!

Good luck!

Evangelos

More details

Barometer: 1018mb

Temperature range :19-30C  less than yesterday-less thermal triggering than yesterday

Dewpoint: 11.5 C

Low humidity: increases 10%

High Humidity: Increases by 10% to the ENE

Cloud base: at 2200-2500m to the east at 14.30h

Cloud tops :+150m from Cloud base, higher cloud tops than yesterday

Cloud types :Cu

Coverage :30% to 50%, more to the east

Sun energy flow: decreases comparing to yesterday - weaker thermals, longer cycles, less organized close to the ground. 

Inversions :1000-1300 stable layer, wind shear at 3000m at 14.30h. 

Average thermal :at 1,5m/s (less by 1m/s comparing to yesterday)

Thermals/Altitude: 500m/+2m/s, 1000m/+3m/s, 1500m/+1m/s

Ideal Thermal Zone for Speed :500-1300m but uncertain to configure

Gusts :26kph at 14.30 

0m: SE 10 kph

600m: SE 12 kph

1200m: SE 12 kph

1800m: ESE <10 kph ( Above 1300m inversion)

2400m: ESE 10kph 

3000m: SE 20kph above shear level

3600m: SE 20kph, increasing at 17.00h

Conditions organise: 11.00h up to 1200m lift

Conditions decline after: 14.30h (peak at 1500m)

Peak period: 13.00-14.30h

Peak time: 13.30h

Duration of task: 2,5h

Calculated XC Speed: 22-24kph

Potential task: 50 km 

Convergence lines: from take off to the North  

Rain: 3% isolated