Summary of the Day forecast - "Hot, day explodes after 14.00 from west - Shadow "
Yesterday the NNW wind was parallel to the ridge of Krusevo, and the west valley was more unstable from the east. The result was that the west side worked very early and thermals from east and west side mixed with the wind and did not give us the time to safely take off.
As predicted thermals were turbulent close to the shear at 2100m and above this altitude a strong wind entered the area, expected 35kph at 3000m. Thermals were strong enough to reach this altitude and the day was not taskable.
For Saturday the 26th, the west valley will also have stronger conditions and start working earlier. The Wind will be the opposite-from the SE, and conditions will remind us a small front passing from our area after 15.00h from the west to the north east.
The barometer will drop by 4mb, and there is a local low above Serbia, very close to us, switching winds to SE close to the ground and SW above an inversion of 2100m.
Humidity will increase at high altitude +20% compared to yesterday. This will create clouds first to the west, with very high cloud base of 4000m+ above mountains, but these clouds will evolve up to 5.700m tops, and there will appear Cb clouds west to the area of Ochrid around 15.00. These clouds will bring a cascade of Cu Congestus reaching us from the west, there will be overdevelopment and shade to our Krusevo valley after 16.00.
It is possible to have an isolated shower at 16.00 west of Krusevo and a number of rain clouds will surround our valley from the NW moving to NE.
After 16.00 a gust front of 40kph will reach the take off area and valley gusts may reach 30+kph from the south.
It is very likely that the west side instability will not leave us much time to take off from the east side, and that the west showers will not have an impact to the east valley except a wind gust from the west in the Bitola area and west gusts in the west take off after 15.00, maybe earlier due to the unstable west area.
Evangelos
More Details
Barometer & trend: Drops 4mb after 14.00h
Temperature range DT: 27-39 = 12 C real feel temperature 41
Dewpoint / time: 4,5C North and 6,5 C South
Humidity: ground <20%, and within the boundary layer 80%, icreased by 20% at the upper layers increasing the possibility for Congestus clouds above the high ground.
Cloud base: expected at 4000+
Cloud top: +1500m up to 5700m
Cloud types: thin Cu, Cu Cong, Shower clouds up to 5700 at 15.30 from west, Cb at Ochrid lake, spreadout to the west after 15.00 and shadow to the east valley.
Cloud coverage: Clear Valley, 40% above mountains at 15.00h more than yesterday
Average Thermal: 3 m/s
Peak Thermal at Altitude: 1000m/+2,5m/s, 1500m/3,5m/s, >2100m +4m/s+
Top of Thermals: 2600m at 13.00h, 2900m at 14.00h, 3350m at 15.00h, 3.900m at 16.00h
Best Thermal Zone: 1500-2200m, later 1500-3000m
Inversions: 2150, 4000m
Wind Gust: 28+ kph, at 16.00 expected South 30kph in the valley and West 40kph at take off due to gust front from Ochrid area
Ground average wind: SE 10-15 kph
600m: SE 15 kph
1200m: SE 15 kph
1800m: SE 15 kph
2400m: SW 10 kph above 2100m Inversion
3000m: SW 15 kph
3600m: SW 15 kph
Day starts organising thermals at 13.00h
Conditions start declining after 16.00h with Shadow in the valley
Best conditions Period 14.00-16.30 h
Peak thermal conditions at 16.00h with risk of shower to the west valley
Task duration 2.5 h
Calculated XC speed 32-37 kph
Potential Day task 80 km
Rain possibility 15% to Ochrid area
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