Summary of the Day forecast - "A blue and Hot day to the right side of Krusevo"
West winds drop and move to a higher level, above the inversion, so the official take off will welcome us!
Low in the valley we expect light east breeze, potentially from the SW to the landing field close to Bitola.
The day will start organizing decent thermals after 11.00h but there will be a valley inversion at 1500m until 12.00. As the day warms up thermals with long cycles will hit the take off with gusts up to 20kph.
These thermal gusts may increase at 15.00h to 28kph.
This inversion will define the day, in the valley. At 13.00 it will climb to 1800m, at 14.00 to 2100m, at 15.00 2300, at 16.00 at 2600 in the center of the valley.
Above this inversion the wind will be from the West and SW at higher altitudes expected 15kph at 3.000m.
High sun energy will make thermals stronger and some of them will pass through this inversion climbing up to 3.000m in the strongest period of the day (13.00-16.00) with a peak of conditions at 15.30-16.00h. Thermals will climb higher above high ground.
East breeze is expectd in the valley, potentially from the South East at Bitola, less than 10kph but with surface gusts up to 20-25 kph at the peak of thermal activity.
Due to the low dewpoint and very high surface temperatures, clouds are not expected in the valley, but around the mountains in the horizon some thin Cu and rare will be present after 13.00 above mountain tops to the NE and SE to Prilep high ground. These very high clouds will be thin, short lived and will not be reachable.
I believe that the conditions will be workable at the mountains after 12.00, with an initial dificulty to gain altitude, then the day will start to work better at 13.00, develop gradually until 14.00, and later improve in the valley at 15.30h with two Convergence areas, one to the North from take off and another in the middle of the valley above the center valley hills.
Thermal cores will be better from the east side lower of the inversion and above the inversion they will accelerate from the west side.
Evangelos
More Details
Barometer & trend: similar, drops 1 mb - high
Temperature range DT: 21-3 = 16 C - Hot day with difficulties in thermal triggering and long thermal cycles especially in the flats.
Dewpoint / time: 6,5 C at 15.00h
Humidity: <20%, and within the boundary layer 30%, less than tomorrow
Cloud base: expected at 3700+ at specific mountain areas in the North and East
Cloud top: +400m - thin clouds that dissolve quickly
Cloud types: Cu
Cloud coverage: less than yesterday
Average Thermal: 2.5-3 m/s, below the inversion +1,5m/s
Peak Thermal at Altitude: Surface +1m/s, 1000m/+3m/s, 1500m/4m/s, >2000m +5m/s+
Top of Thermals: 3000m, lower in the east
Best Thermal Zone: 2000-2700m
Inversions: 1600, 2500m
Wind Gust: 20-25 kph, peak 28kph at take off at 15.00h
Ground average wind: East 10kph at 15.00h
600m: East 10kph
1200m: East 10kph
1800m: East 10kph
2400m: West 10kph
3000m: West 15kph
3600m: SW 20kph
Day starts organising thermals at 11.00h with long cycles
Conditions start declining after 16.30h
Best conditions Period 13.00-16.30h
Peak thermal conditions at 16.00h
Task duration 2,5-3 h
Calculated XC speed 32 kph+
Potential Day max task 75-90km
Rain possibility 0%
Comments
Post a Comment