Summary of the Day forecast - Forecast Changed Overnight
Local low barometric pressure established in the area
Winds from the NE at all altitudes up to 2850 inversion
Lower temperatures with medium contrast, assuming a mild instability and slow evolution of precipitation events.
Baro meter has further droped, humidity increases inside the boundary layer up to 60%. All these combine to air density drop, smoother thermals, easier to break inversions, but also higher NE winds and possibility for precipitation, especially from the NNW.
From the early morning we expect NE winds around 15kph, with gust in the take off that can reach 25 kph at 15.00h on surface.
After 13.00h there is a high possibility of precipitation at Krusevo, coming from the NW. We also expect precipitation to the North Mountains, and overdevelopment in the south valley to Bitola.
A scattered Cu sky is expected east of Krusevo, with an exit to Prilep, while all around it will be overdeveloped with Shower clouds in the north and Spreadout in the south.
This will increase possibility for rain in the area. However there is a chance that these unstable conditions will split to two waves, one will go to the N with showers after 13.00h to the direction to Skopje, and another wave to the south to the direction to Voras mountain in Greece, offering a small opportunity for a short task out in the valley, combining well winds and clouds, but this is very optimistic. High possibility of Shower over Krusevo at 14.00.
The sky seems to open after 16.00h for a second cloud cycle.
Cu, Cu Congestus, Shower clouds, Ac clouds will develop and approach from the W creating shadow in the Valley.
From the experience in the area, I believe that the rain will delay from what the models predict, it will be present very close but around Krusevo valley, and the conditions will deteriorate after 15.00h due to the shadow of spreadout and vertical overdevelopment to the west.
The cloudbase will drop in the west but will be high to the east valley after 13.00
As a remote comment from what I understand, if the valley keeps its low humid air (20%) it may work independently and give an opportunity for a short valley task in the east. If there is no shower close to Krusevo at 14.00 maybe this will be the case.
Finally, for the task to Bitola, be aware for overdevelopment between 15.00 and 16.00, and have in mind that there will be shadow in the area of the final glide because of the 6.500m top clouds of Ochrid to the west.
Good luck
Evangelos
More Details
Barometer & trend: drops 4mb. The air density drops weakening the inversion.
Temperature range DT: 23-33 = 10C suggesting smoother thermals slow evolution of events.
Dewpoint / time: Initially 8,5 C later increases from the North side of the valley.
Humidity: is increased +5% on surface at 15.00 but at higher altitude of boundary layer increases up to 60%.
Cloud base: Initially 3300m+ at 13.00h to the valley but later expected to drop.
Cloud top: Up to 6500+m with shower clouds mainly to the west and NW after 14.00h.
Cloud types: Cu, Cu Congestus, Shower clouds, Spreadout, Ac after 13.00
Cloud coverage: up to 80% in the north and NW, and 60% in the valley in 2 cycles
Aerage Thermal: 3,75 m/s at 15.00
Peak Thermal at Altitude: +3/1000m, +3,5m/s at 1500m, +4,9 at 2000m.
Top of Thermals: 2550m
Best Thermal Zone: 1500-2500m
Wind Gust: <30 kph on surface at 15.00
Ground wind: NE 15 kph
600m: NE 15 kph
1200m: NE 15 kph
1800m: NE 15 kph
2400m: NE 15 kph
3000m: NW< 5 kph
3600m: NW<5 kph
Day starts organizing thermals at 12.00h
Conditions start declining after 15.00h second cycle at 16.00h
Best conditions Period 13.00-16.00h with risk of overdevelopment and precipitation
Peak thermal conditions at 15.00h
Task duration 2,5 h
Calculated XC speed 34 kph
Potential Day XC distance 60km
Ideal task 60 km
Rain possibility 25%
Potential Precipitation between 14.00-16.00h
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