30 May 2024 Pegalajar Soaring Forecast

Summary

Conditions similar to yesterday, maybe the day starts half an hour later than yesterday to organize thermals. 

More clouds are expected in the East mountains

Cloud base higher than yesterday but only 2% coverage and in the east

Top of lift in the mountains > 3000m, less in Pegalajar hills (2400) and less in the Valley (<2000)

Details

Baro dropping 1010mb and inversion levels will weaken

Temperature range 13 C which is good for air parcels to start rising below the first inversion level.

humidity 20-40%, dropping after 12.00

Dewpoint Take off 8,7 C, estimating a blue thermal day, except high ground were we expect some Cu, especially 40-50 Km in the east.

Cloud Coverage 2% with lower level clouds

Cu in the east mountains with a depth up to 1000m from base to top

Potential Cloud base >4000m

No high cloud

Thermal 1,5m/s in the north valley, 2,5m/s at take off, 3m/s at the east mountains

Thermals day starts at 12.00

Peak thermals from 13.00 to 17.00

Ideal Thermal zone 1500-2500m max 4 m/s. The conditions estimate a usable 4h and XC around 100Km.

Inversion levels 1000m, 1500m, 2800m

Surface gust winds up to 28kph in the take off

Sun heat energy 600W per square meter (more than yesterday). This is because Dust particles have increased eastwards and reduced in the West. This means that the day will delay to start but in the afternoon will be stronger (15.00) than yesterday as more sun energy will appear after Sun drops to the west side of the area.

Potential XC Speed 22 to 27 km/h estimated by the conditions

Potential task length 88-101 Km according to predicted Potential Speed and 4h duration of peak conditions.

Winds average in different altirudes

0m North 15kph

600m North 15kph

1200m North 15kph Above 1500 we have winds change, feeling like an inversion, but above that height thermals will accelerate as the surrounding air will be cooler above 1500m.

1800m North 10kph

2400m South 12kph . Another inversion will be at 2800m decelerating thermals

3000m South 20kph

Convergence level >2000m across mountains to east direction

Evangelos Tsoukas