17th European Paragliding Championships Weather Forecast - Pagalajar May 29th 2024

 Summary

A day similar to yesterday, with high pressure, supposing stronger lower inversion than yesterday, high temperatures and less temperature contrast, producing mild conditions at low level. 

High airmass kinetic energy with low humidity will create a feeling of solid and not easy to penetrate air.

The Conditions will be similar to the previous day, with stronger inversions, weakest conditions below the first inversion level and less possibility for clouds in the area. 

The day will get stronger later than the previous day

Details

Barometer 1017 - Air with high density and low humidity

min T 19

Max T 31

DT = 11 C good temperature range for instability, however not ideal and with not great temperature contrast to start strong thermals close to ground.

Dewpoint calculated at 8,5 at 15.00

Humidity with a range starting at 50% and ending at 20% at the peak of thermal activity

Cloudbase expected theoretically at 3.400m (mainly blue thermals in the area) more Cu cloud are expected 50km in the East mountains beyond Quesada.

Cloud tops are expected to be +500m from cloud base. Some small and very high Cu in the South East with a probability to appear after 15.00.

Cloud Coverage expected to be <10%

Thermals

Thermal Strength is expected weak until 13.00 not climbing more than 1300m. Later they will improve after 12.00 and the thermal peak of the day will be between 13.00 and 17.00.

Thermal tops expected to reach 2200m at 15.30 and increase to 3000m at 18.00, however inversion and wind shear challenges will minimise this to lower levels. 

Ideal Thermal zone will be from the level of 1400m to 2300m where some thermal cores of 2,3m/s in the west and 2,8 in the east may be possible. However the wind switch at 1800m will disorganize these thermals respectively to thermal strength.

Wind gusts on the ground are expected at 14-28 kph at take off during the peak hours of the day.

Wind levels

Ground North 12 kph

600m North <10 kph

1200m North 12 kph

1800m Variable

2400m South 18 kph

3000m South West 13 kph

Wind Change is expected at an altitude of 1800m with the higher southern wind to be less that on Tuesday

Potential XC speed not expected more than 27 kph which combined with a 4h peak conditions duration assumes a possible 100-110 km task above high ground

Dust forecast is similar to Tuesday, assuming a sun energy level to be around 550Watts per square meter, similar to yesterday.

SKEW-T diagram for the take off area

Dust Concentration