Paragliding World Cup Krusevo, Weather Forecast 21st July 2025

 

Summary of the Day forecast - Heat Wave to the South of Balkans

The local Low in Croatia in Combination with a High pressure in Romania, are the reasons for the higher WSW wind in the area we have like yesterday. 

Barometer in relatively high at 1009 mb, meaning that the first inversion initialy at 1.600m will be strong. This is both good and bad, as it can push the W wind higher, and protect our take off from nasty winds, but also can be a challenge as it will not be so easy for thermals to climb above this altitude. This will change during the day as we expect that this inversion will climb at 14.00h to 2300m and at 15.00h to 2600m. 

Humidity is very low close to the ground and lower comparing to yesterday, meaning that we expect less cloud than yesterday, with high cloud base, expected above 3.300m. In general it will be a hot day with high air density, reaching 37 C, with a strong inversion , and blue in the beginning, with less Temp contrast close to the ground, meaning a difficulty for thermal triggering. The sky will be hazy and sun energy will be <250W/m2, meaning long thermal cycles, and difficulty of thermals to start and to pass the inversion. 

Regarding winds, although the W will be less than yesterday and at higher altitude than yesterday, after 13.00-13.30 that the sun switches side to the west of our mountain, the conditions may get stronger and the gust can reach 28kph, maybe more after 14.00, with a peak above 30kph at 15.00.

Thermals are expected weak close to the ground (<1m/s) and can be bumpy and broken close to the inversion, but if they pass through the first inversion they will accelerate up to 5m/s and reach 2700m.

Clouds will start appearing to the NW of the take off at 13.00 with <20% coverage. At 14.00 Cu clouds will expand to the North side of the valley and above high ground in the east. Thin clouds are expected (400m).

Finally, the wind at take off will get much stronger and gusty after 15.00h when take off will be a challenge.

More Details

Barometer & trend: Keeps relatively high at 1010mb

Temperature range DT: 23-37 = 14C suggesting low triggering close to the ground 

Dewpoint / time: 6,5 C in the valley 

Humidity: low close to the ground (20%), higher above 1600m, but less than yesterday, meaning less clouds than the previous day, at a higher cloud base and thinner (400m)

Cloud base: expected at 3.300+ above high ground 

Cloud top: +400m from cloud base  

Cloud types: Cu

Cloud coverage: Initialy <20% to the NW, then North and East across the high ground horizon. Later some convergence lines are expected in the middle of the valley from north to south. The stronger convergence is expected in the line from Krusevo to Prilep. 

Average Thermal: +3 m/s stronger than yesterday by 0,5m/s, however close to the ground it may be weaker than yesterday. Thermals will be much stronger above the first inversion and may be turbulent and broken when they meet the stronger W wind at altitude. 

Peak Thermal at Altitude: close to ground 1m/s, +3/1000m, +4m/s at 1500m, +4,5m/s at 2000,  at best cores +4,9m/s at 2500m.

Top of Thermals: gradually increases up to 3100m at 15.00, if they pass through the inversion.          

Best Thermal Zone: 1900-2700m 

Inversion: Initially at 1600m (13.00), gradually climbing at at 2400m (14.00), and at 15.00 it is expected at 2600m. The West wind will be at first above 1600m letting us take off from the west side, but with not well organized thermals. After 13.30 thermals will increase gusts between take off and Invesion up to 28kph, and after 15.00 this gust is expected to exceed 30Kph.

Wind Gust: 20 kph (13.00), 25kph (14.00), 30kph (15.00) at take off 

Ground wind: (11.00)-ESE <10kph, (12.00) South<10 kph (13.00) SW 15 increasing 

600m: (11.00)-ESE <10kph, (12.00) South<10 kph (13.00) SW 15 increasing 

1200m: SW 15+kph

1800m: W 15+kph

2400m: W 20 kph

3000m: W 20 kph

3600m: W 30kph

Day starts organising thermals at 13.00h 

Conditions start declining after 17.00h   

Best conditions Period 14.00-17.00h 

Peak thermal conditions at 15.00h

Task duration 3,5 h 

Calculated XC speed 32 kph 

Potential Day max task 90 km with air start at 13.00 (marginal)

Rain possibility 0%