Summary of the Day forecast
Winds similar to yesterday, light West on top and ESE around 10kph below 2200m.
Lower temperature increases but higher temperatures remain the same. Barometer drops, humidity increases inside the boundary layer. All these combine to density drop, smoother thermals, easier to break inversions.
It will be a mix of yesterday air in the valley to the east and high humidity air that will come from the west after 13.00. In the beggining the day will be blue with more clouds to the west, but soon after the first Cu clouds appear to Krusevo, we will have a rapid drop of the cloud base to the NW and SW, vertical overdevelopment and rain clouds to the Ochrid area, that will later come closer to Krusevo.
This will increase possibility for rain in the area to 25%. However there is a chance that these unstable conditions will split to two waves, one will go to the N to the direction to Skopje, and another wave to the south to the direction to Voras mountain in Greece, offering a small opportunity for a short task, but this is very optimistic.
There will be one hour waves starting from the west at 14.00 with Cb to Ochrid, at 15.00 shower cloud to the North mountains. 16.00 shower south of Bitola.
The sky will be better in the middle of the Valley with exit to Prilep, but the whole think will become complex after the sun warms the west Krusevo slopes, when Cu, Cu Congestus, Shower clouds, Ac clouds will develop and approach from the west creating shadow in the Valley.
From the experience in the area, I believe that the rain will delay from what the models predict, it will be present very close but around Krusevo valley, and the conditions will deteriorate after 16.00h due to the shadow.
The cloudbase will drop in the west but will be high to the east valley. The cloud coverage will decrease after 17.30 and at 18.00 the valley sky will be clear.
More Details
Barometer & trend: drops 4mb. The air density drops weakening the inversion.
Temperature range DT: 22-34 = 12C suggesting smoother thermals and less triggering.
Dewpoint / time: Initially 9,5 in the North, 8,5 in the east anf 7,5 in the south valley suggesting very high cloud bases, but it is expected that after 14.00 the humidity will increase from the west, the cloud base will drop and the Dewpoint will increase to 14,5 C from the west side.
Humidity: is similar at 17% but is expected to increase at higher altitude of boundary layer increasing up to 60%.
Cloud base: Initially 3500m+ at 14.00h to the valley but later expected lower.
Cloud top: Up to 6500+m with shower clouds mainly to the west, NW and SW after 14.00h.
Cloud types: Cu, Cu Congestus, Shower clouds, Spreadout, Ac after 14.00
Cloud coverage: up to 55% in the valley in cycles, up to 80% around the high ground
Average Thermal: 3,75 m/s at 15.00
Peak Thermal at Altitude: Short period of thermals after 14.00h.
Top of Thermals: 2550m
Best Thermal Zone: 1500-2300m
Wind Gust: 30 kph and less
Ground wind: ESE <10 kph
600m: ESE <10kph
1200m: ESE <10kph
1800m: ESE <10 kph closing to the inversion
2400m: W <10 kph
3000m: West 15 kph
3600m: West 15 kph
Day starts organizing thermals at 12.00h
Conditions start declining after 15.00h
Best conditions Period 12.30-15.00h
Peak thermal conditions at 15.00h
Task duration 2,5 h
Calculated XC speed 30 kph
Potential Day XC distance 60km
Ideal task 60 km
Rain possibility 25%
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