Krusevo Weather Forecast 20th July - training day for the PWC

 

Summary of the Day forecast

Higher temperatures, less barometric pressure than yesterday, and a local low centered in the North Greece, combine together for another tricky day that starts working from the west, explodes rapidly, and conditions decline fast after 15.00h. 

There is potential vertical overdevelopment from the West of Krusevo, with potential rain clouds develop at the area of Ochrid and NW and may also cover Krusevo area after 14.00.

Theoretically we expect stronger thermals than yesterday due to humidity drop, and weaker inversions due to the Barometric pressure drop. 

First Cu are expected to appear at 11.00, at 12.00 they expand to the valley with some spreadout, Some Cirrus will appear to the west at 14.00h, Ac and Cbs in a line from the NW to the SW of Krusevo mountains that may bring rain also in the east valley. 

Possibly, the rapid ascend of high clouds to the west will bring shadow which will make thermal conditions decline fast in the valley after 15.00h and the day will be short lived.

It seems like there is a lot of stability close to the ground and a lot of instability at high altitude.

Be aware for potential rain at 14.30h

More Details

Barometer & trend: Drops 5mb and local Low pressure in the area.

Temperature range DT: 20-35 = 15C suggesting good triggering of thermals to the ground and more organised to a lower altitude.

Dewpoint / time: 6,5 C in the valley 

Humidity: at 35% within boundary layer. Lower on the ground drops by 5%, expecting stronger thermals.

Cloud base: expected at 3.000 above high ground and less in the middle of the east valley 

Cloud top: +2500m from cloud base in the valley and +3000 to the west.  

Cloud types: Cu, spreadout, Ac, Ci, showers after 14.30 from the NW.

Cloud coverage: up to 80%West of the mountains and 20% in the valley early, later 80% high cloud and shadow from the west after 14.30h  

Average Thermal: +2.5 m/s 

Peak Thermal at Altitude: close to ground 1.5m/s, +2.9/1000m, +4.2m/s at 1500m, +5 above 2000 at best cores

Top of Thermals: gradually increases up to 3150m at 14.30, then day collapses.          

Best Thermal Zone: 1500-2700m 

Inversion: at 900m , 1800m. The 900m will be broken around 13.00h but at 1800 I believe we will have shear with very strong NW wind at that time and thermals will be broken at this level. however some strong thermals will work better above 1500 and may climb to cloudbase.

Wind Gust: up to 25 kph from West at take off 

Ground wind: East<10 kph in the valley at 14.00h 

600m: East<10 kph to the valley 

1200m: E<10 kph to the valley and WSW 10kph at take off at 14.00

1800m: NW 20 kph, above the inversion of 1500m

2400m: NW 22 kph

3000m: NW 25 kph

3600m: NW 35 kph

Day starts organising thermals at 13.00h 

Conditions start declining after 15.00h rapidly  

Best conditions Period 14.30-16.00h 

Peak thermal conditions at 15.00h

Task duration 3 h 

Calculated XC speed 32 kph 

Potential Day task 80 km

Rain possibility icreased at 14.30h