X-Alps Soaring weather Forecast Les 2 Alps area 19th June 25

 

Summary

The following forecast represents what is expected in the area around Les 2Alps for today.

The barometer at 1013, dropping from yesterday and humidity at 50%, indicate a lower air density. Thermals will not have high kinetic energy and inversions will be easier to break.

Above mountain tops the top of lift will be higher than yesterday. The temperature contrast of DT=9 C shows instability and significant thermal triggering in sunny areas. But high cloud will create shade and sun energy will not reach easily the ground, meaning long cycles between thermals and average lift around 2m/s. The conditions will slowly start working but after 14.00 h with more sun the conditions will evolve faster creating Cu and Cu Cong clouds with high possibility of Showers after 15.00h.

Initially a high cloud will cover the area until 10.00h. After that there will be openings and sun energy will warm the ground relatively fast (250w/m2). The first organized thermals are expected after 10:30h at high ground. In the east less clouds with higher cloud base of >3300m while above Grenoble area the cloud base will start at 2100 and later will maximize to 2500m above low ground.  

The high cloud will let enough energy for Cu clouds with high CAPE index, which will slowly evolve to CuCongestus and we expect to have shower clouds later than 15.00h to the direction to AOSTA valley South of Mont Blanc and East of Les 2Alps.

Inversion levels are expected at 400m, 1300m, 2000m. The inversion will not be so strong comparing to yesterday, especially closer to the high ground. 

Thermals are expected less than 2m/s below 1600m, around 2,5m/s below 1700m, 3,1m/s below1900m, 3,5m/s below 2500. The ideal thermal zone for fast XC is between 1900 and 2500m. 

wind gusts expected 22 kph 

ground wind <10kph from NW

600m <10 Kph NW

1200m <10 Kph NW

1800m <10 Kph NW

2400m <10Kph W

3000m <10 Kph S

3600m <10 Kph E

Conditions will start organizing thermals at 10.30h and start declining after 15.00h

The peak conditions will be 11.00-15.00

XC Duration 6h

Expected Average XC Speed 20 Kph

Expected XC Potential 120 Km 

Precipitation expected after 15.00h