Soaring Weather Forecast for St Moritz area 17th June 2025 for XAlps

 

Summary

The following forecast represents what is expected in the area around St Moritz for today.

The barometer at 1016, and humidity at 38%, indicate a slightly increased density and high kinetic energy from thermals. The temperature contrast of DT=11C shows instability and good thermal triggering in sunny areas. Dewpoint at 4C representing very high cloud-bases, or no cloud-base at all in other areas. In the east blue skies with potential clouds at 4.000m+ while in the North west the cloud-base from 2400 in high humid areas up to 3400m above high ground. 

Initially a high cloud will create shade and 100% coverage of the area letting <350W/m2 sun energy to warm the ground. This is enough energy for light thermals to start organizing at 10.30h. The situation will recover after 13.00h and more sun energy (450W/m2)will reach the ground strengthening conditions after 14.00h and creating more Cu clouds especially to the North and Northwest of S. Moritz mountains.

Inversion levels are expected at 2900m from the Skew-T but lower inversions may also be expected especially in areas with stale air mass from yesterday. Another high thermal inversion level at 4.000m.

We also expect at 3400m a wind mix level where the lower light north winds will mix with higher stronger North east winds. This will break thermals and the max thermal altitude is expected between 3300-3450m.

Thermals are expected less than 2,5m/s below 2000m, around 3m/s above 2100m, 3,7m/s above 2200m, >4m/s above 2600. The ideal thermal zone for fast XC is between 2200 and 3100m. Thermals may accelerate after they reach mountain tops in the lee side dew to the upper north continental light winds.

wind gusts expected<20kph 

ground wind 12kph from North

600m 12 Kph N

1200m 12 Kph N

1800m 12 Kph NNE

2400m NNE 12Kph

3000m NNW 10Kph

3600m NW 25 Kph

Conditions will start organizing thermals at 10.30h and start declining after 17.00h

The peak conditions will be 11.00-16.00

XC Duration 6h

Expected Average XC Speed 22,5Kph

Expected XC Potential 125 Km to the direction to Disentis.

No Precipitation expected in the area