Algodonales Soaring Weather Forecast May 15th 2025

 

Summary

High pressure in the area in the level of 1019mb increases local air density, and creates stronger and lower inversion level with less Cumulus clouds. A strong inversion starts around 1000m, later 1500m (at 14.00) and 1600m (at 16.00h). The day will start working late at 13.00, but will gradually improve, until 19.00. after this time it will rapidly decline. 

At first no Cu but later there will be some small Cu above high ground with a cloud base of 2.200-2400 at 14.00 and after 17.00 at 2500. Clouds to the east and to the west with a coverage of 10%.

Thermals will be light in the beginning  befor 13.00, especially close to the ground. Later after 13.00 +2,5 up to 1000m (inversion at this time). Above 1000m +3,5m/s, above 1200m +4,5m up to 16.00 at 15.00. The higher density may create more turbulent and powerful thermals with high kinetic energy. 

Inversion will gradually go higher until 19.00. 

High winds will be north and strong but above the inversion, however winds will be lighter and from the west below the inversion. 

Turbulence is expected close to the inversion above 1500m as the boundary layer will mix with the higher colder and stronger continental winds. this means that some stronger thermals which will break the inversion will suddenly accelerate above 1500-1600 and drift to the south. 

I think that if the north winds are well isolated from the inversion, the local micro climate will dominate the conditions and it will be strong but flyable.

Details

Barometer 1019mb

min Temperature 9

high temperature 19

DT = 10 C indicating enough instability and fair enough thermals around 4,5m/s

Cloudbase later in the day 2200-2400, 2500 above high ground at east and west

Cloud coverage 10% and less

Inversion levels initially at 1000m, after 13.00h at 1400m, after 15.00h 1600m, later even higher.

Thermals 2,5 up to 1000m, 3,5 between 1000-1200m, +4,5 from 1200-1600m

Max thermal height at 15.00 is 1650m later higher.

Winds:

Gust 26kph

0m West 12kph

600m west 14kph

1200m NW 15kph

1800m North 30kph

2400m NNW 34kph

3000m NNW 39kph

Expected XC Speed 27kph

Potential XC 120km