Weather forecast for Varasova Sat 1st March 2025

 Summary

conmbining a short weekend excursion with friends and family close to Varasova mountain, I said 'why not take the equipment with me?'

Then a chain reaction took place, and I also checked the conditions in the area as I was sure that we were in the middle of a wet 2-3 days period, but you never know, as the conditions in Greece always start improving from the west, and before the expected Cirrus clouds of Saturday, there is apossibility to have some sun energy and some breeze on the west side of Varasova rocks...

Lets see...

Barometer 1022

DT = 5-8 C. 5 is not good but 8 is possible. 5 is from ICON while 8 is from GFS models

Dewpoint expected around 9 degrees, therefore a cloudbase around 900m is possible 

Cloud tops can not go over 2000m close to the area, although in the higher ground of the general area some Cumulus Congestus clouds are possible (30%)

Cloud coverage will be 30-40% above Nafpaktos, with overdevelopment cycles and after 14.30 a high cloud will increase coverage to 70-100% and reduce the energy flow to the ground below 60w/sq m which is low for thermals to grow. But hope is tha last survivor to our sport, as an optimist would expect a flying window due to the long exposure to the sun of the west rocky area. And we have it as we are in the west of Greece, there will be clearer sky above the Ionion sea, just some Cirrus clouds from the west and there is a possibility for a SW sea breeze to develop after 14.00 with a peak between 14.00-16.00

Inversion at 600m is the limit for local thermals (theoretically, because if we have the breeze lifting close to the mountain, this inversion will easily break close to the rocks)

Thermals will be max netto 2,5m/s, meaning an indicated 1,5 at the peak if all the conditions combine good. A realistic +0,5 m/s is more possible, and this up to 600m. But if we have a light sea breeze as predicted from the SW Plus thermals, everything is possible for thermals to reach 900m up to the cloudbase.

Average wind from the SW <10kph, the higher the western direction

Gusts up to 14kph, and for superadiabatic reasons they may reach 19kph at peak between 14.00 and 16.00h

The day will thermodynamically start working at 13.00 with a peak between 14.00 and 16.00, although more shadow from cirrus is expected after 15.00.

Predicted XC speed is 18kph

PFD at 36km

rain possibility 5% mainly close to Vardoussia mountains and in the west side of Panachaikos peak.

Cape at 20J/kg implying slow vertical cloud expansion at least far from the higher mountains where we are.