PWC Superfinal Roldanillo 14th Feb 2025 Weather Forecast

  

Summary

Yesterday, the high sun energy combined with high CAPE energy had the result of vertical overdevelopment and rain as predicted.

Comparing with optimism to the previous day, we expect less but existing rain possibility (less 25% rain possibility), with more sun in the beggining of the day and less CAPE energy, with reduced possibility of verical overdevelopment and precipitation. 

However the air will be unstable with isolated shower clouds here and there after 13.00h.

In the beggining sun is expected and the conditions will activate around 10.00h with light gusts from the east <10kph. later many low clouds will appear, in the valley reaching 65% coverage, and there will also be a higher layer with 95% coverage. Light will pass, and wherever it falls on the ground, we will have a thermal that will evolve to a cloud with a 60% possibility to bring a light shower. This behavior will create ON/OFF cycles of 1-2 hours, meaning that we will have the first overdevelopment at 13.00, the second  wave at 14.00, the next cycle at 15.30, etc.

I would say that the day will offer opportunities for flight, but it will be demanding regarding the pilot decisions to follow the sun, be fast and clever, and not be late below clouds, as either they will not "work" or there will be likely a shower.

Tricky day, but marginally doable.

Live Cloud Radar:

Sat24 image

PWCA

Details:

Barometer at 1016mb increased

min temp 20 C

Max temp 28 C

DT =8 C, Not so wide range, meaning that there will be thermal activity but not strong, especially close to the ground.

High humidity65% higher west of Roldanillo and less in the valley, implying better conditions to the NE direction of Cauca valley.

Cloud base: expected at 2200m in the valley 

Cloud tops are expected at 6.200m, as a lot of energy is released in the cloudbase, but less than yesterday, meaning that thermals will be weaker as we approach the cloudbase. 

Cu and CuConj clouds in the area, with 1-2h cycles on/off, but conditions in every cycle will be weaker than in the previous cycle , with less sun and with more rain

Inversion levels: a low layer at 1100m and a higher layer at 2000m (yesterday 1800m) 

Cloud coverage 95% for the high layer cloud and 65% for the lower clouds.  

Thermals around 0,5m/s netto up to 1200m, 1m/s up to 1300m, 1,5m/s above 1300,  and +2 above 1400m, stronger above 1600m 2,5m/s

Thermals will be weaker above 2000m and will stop climbing at 2100m. Thermals are expected stronger in the east of the valley.

Therefore, the ideal thermal zone between 1500m and 2000m

Thermal Gusts in proximity to the ground are expected at10kph at the day peak (13.00-14.30)

average winds:

Ground East <10kph 

In the whole boundary layer expected <10kph. Lower winds from the east and above 1500m winds from the north and very light NW5kph. 

Thermal activity starts around 10.00, ideal take off at 13.00 

Day conditions decline after 14.30

Day peak at 14.00

Potential duration of conditions 2h cycles between 13.00 and 15.00

Potential XC speed 26 kph 

Potential task 60-70 kph

Vangelis Tsoukas