36th British & Duch Championship, Krusevo 2025, Weather Forecast 18th July

Summary of the Day forecast

The slower part of the cold frontal mass further moves from the North Greece area, to the east, maintaining west winds at higher altitude, and bringing rain to Florina area in the afternoon, almost 50km to the south. 

In Krusevo valley, it will be more like post frontal conditions, but with an inversion level at 1500 below which we have east wind and valley thermals, and above the shear level of 2200 there will still be west wind, broken thermals and the well known and challenging west side story. But things will improve during the day.

As the day gets warmer, thermals will break the 2200m barrier creating cloud base around 3000 to the west of the valley and 2600 to the east of the valley. The whole system will develop up to 40% cloud coverage, but later - after 15.00 the clouds will move to the east and the area between Krusevo and Bitola will open, while in the South and Southeast there will be rain in a distance of 50km.

Barometer is rising, temperatures are dropping, humidity is similar. This combination will create a 15 C temp contrast, offering good thermal triggering and thermal gusts that initially will be around 22kph, but at the peak of the day they may reach 30kph in the take off.

Cloud overdevelopment is expected in the NW early in the afternoon. 

It is highly possible that after 16.00h when cloud coverage decreases between Krusevo and Bitola, thermal tops to exceed by far 3000m, even reach 3500m as humidity will drop, air becomes more dense and thermals will be stronger offering long final glides.

 

More Details

Barometer & trend: increase 

Temperature range DT: 15-30 = 15C suggesting good triggering of thermals to the ground

Dewpoint / time: 9,5 C in the valley, 11,5 C to the North and 4 C to the west. This masses will mix and early in the afternoon they will move to the east. Cloud base will increase, but clouds will be less after 15.00.  

Humidity: at 25% below inversions and up to 50% within th boundary layer.

Cloud base: Initially 2600-2700 m to the West later will increase to 3000m. To the east will be alway lower and this will move eastwards.  

Cloud top: +550m from cloud base.  

Cloud types: Cu, some Congestus in th horizon, Shower clouds to the south borders with Greece. Maybe some Ac after 17.00

Cloud coverage: up to 40%, later it will drop to 30% 

Average Thermal: +3 m/s 

Peak Thermal at Altitude: +3/1000m, +4m/s at 1500m

Top of Thermals: initially 2300-2750m. Later up to 3000m especially to the west side of the valley.          

Best Thermal Zone: 1500-2600m after 15.00

Inversion: at 1500m and 2200m, later higher than 2200

Wind Gust: up to 30 kph at 15.00

Ground wind: ESE<10 kph

600m: ESE<10 kph

1200m: ESE<10 kph

1800m: SW<10 kph

2400m: W 24 kph above the shear level of 2200m

3000m: W 29 kph

3600m: W 40 kph

Day starts organizing thermals at 12.00h 

Conditions start declining after 17.00h  

Best conditions Period 13.00-17.00h 

Peak thermal conditions at 14.00h

Task duration 3 h 

Calculated XC speed 33 kph 

Potential Day task 75 km

Rain possibility 0%

Skew-T at 15.00